June CPI Numbers Are In
Jul 13, 2022 10:30:03 #
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-cpi-preview-inflation-likely-surged-to-new-40-year-high-last-month-215233961.html
Inflation rate, year-over-year went to 9.1%, M-t-M is at 1.3%.
While the growth numbers aren't yet in, we are de facto in a recession.
There's another problem here. The Fed rates on debentures (bonds and bills) are hovering at around +/- 3.0%. The difference, at over 500 basis points, is unsustainable. Either they have to let the debenture rates float upward, or they won't be able to sell them on the open market. The Fed is planning another 75 basis points hike in July; that's not nearly enough to cover the spread.
The Dow is now down 1.3%, over 400 points.
Inflation rate, year-over-year went to 9.1%, M-t-M is at 1.3%.
While the growth numbers aren't yet in, we are de facto in a recession.
There's another problem here. The Fed rates on debentures (bonds and bills) are hovering at around +/- 3.0%. The difference, at over 500 basis points, is unsustainable. Either they have to let the debenture rates float upward, or they won't be able to sell them on the open market. The Fed is planning another 75 basis points hike in July; that's not nearly enough to cover the spread.
The Dow is now down 1.3%, over 400 points.
Jul 14, 2022 10:13:09 #
Yes, and still another big problem here. The Producers Price Index, PPI just came in at 11.1%. That is the wholesale cost of doing business which will be passed down to consumers in the next round of inflation.
Jul 14, 2022 10:51:35 #
Fotoartist wrote:
Yes, and still another big problem here. The Producers Price Index, PPI just came in at 11.1%. That is the wholesale cost of doing business which will be passed down to consumers in the next round of inflation.
And what is your proposal other than whinning and attempting to show how smart you are??
Jul 14, 2022 15:33:24 #
Jul 14, 2022 17:13:19 #
DennyT wrote:
what no answer ? from anyone ??
Perhaps they’re just ignoring your idiotic post.
Jul 14, 2022 18:00:38 #
pendennis wrote:
Inflation is not a measure of recession, so we are not "de facto" or any type of facto in a recession as a result of those numbers. We will be officially in a recession when the economy has slowed for a couple of months. Usually, it takes several months before a recession is apparent.
The entire stock market is highly overpriced. Valuation levels currently exceed the 2000 peak. A correction would drop the market valuation by 50-65%. One should expect overcorrection with such a large drop, so 65% or greater is to be expected. That's a huge correction, and when it happens it will take a long time to get out of it.
The government has been keeping interest rates artificially low for a long time, and has been pumping money into the economy for a long time. High interest rates, high inflation, massive recession; it's all got to happen eventually, and we really are a long time past due.
Jul 14, 2022 18:44:07 #
cwp3420 wrote:
Perhaps they’re just ignoring your idiotic post.
Really what’s idiotic about what Americans think should be done .?
Jul 14, 2022 19:21:05 #
DennyT wrote:
Really what’s idiotic about what Americans think should be done .?
That's a rhetorical question, right?
Jul 14, 2022 20:09:04 #
jcboy3 wrote:
Inflation is not a measure of recession, so we are... (show quote)
You failed to read my post, as usual.
I stated that the June numbers were in, and inflation was at 9.1%. Period
PARAGRAPH = Change of subject
I detailed that the 1st Qtr GDP number was negative, and although the 2nd Qtr hasn't been reported, we were already likely in a recession. (I've spent a lot of years studying politics and economics, and I, along with many others, know when we are heading into recession.)
PARAGRAPH = Change of subject
The spread between the T-Bill/T-Bond rates and the rate of inflation are unsustainable. The spread is now 600 basis points. That spread can't be sustained.
PARAGRAPH = Change of subject
The DOW, at the time I posted my comments was down 1.3%, over 400 points.
In fact, when inflation gets to a particular point, recession always follows.
Now whether the stock market is overvalued (and I do believe it is), is another subject. I did not comment on that.
PS - I had a nice discussion in this post - https://www.uglyhedgehog.com/t-745186-2.html concerning the role of the Fed in economic matters.
Jul 14, 2022 21:30:39 #
pendennis wrote:
Also incomes have dropped 3% or so.
Inflation is destroying and outpacing income growth.
Under Trump incomes were outpacing any inflation so net incomes were increasing.
FJB and the democrat policies and spending are 100% at fault.
Jul 14, 2022 22:41:12 #
pendennis wrote:
You failed to read my post, as usual. br br I sta... (show quote)
I read your post. You said we were in a recession. I said we are not, yet, in a recession. Maybe we will be. I certainly hope so. Because the longer we have to wait for a correction, the worse it is likely to be. But we aren't there yet.
Jul 14, 2022 23:20:32 #
jcboy3 wrote:
I read your post. You said we were in a recession. I said we are not, yet, in a recession. Maybe we will be. I certainly hope so. Because the longer we have to wait for a correction, the worse it is likely to be. But we aren't there yet.
Deny it if you like, but we are in a de facto recession, even if no one has announced it "officially". And there are a number of economists out in the hustings who also state the same. If it walks...
Jul 14, 2022 23:27:05 #
pendennis wrote:
Deny it if you like, but we are in a de facto recession, even if no one has announced it "officially". And there are a number of economists out in the hustings who also state the same. If it walks...
I've seen nothing to indicate that we are in a recession. The real economists seem pretty capable of calling one as soon as they see it; and they tend to back that call up with real numbers.
Got a link for any one of those economists in the "hustings"? Although I would be cautious about anything that comes out of a "hustings"; they are very political and politicians have a tendency to lie.
Jul 15, 2022 06:10:02 #
jcboy3 wrote:
I've seen nothing to indicate that we are in a recession. The real economists seem pretty capable of calling one as soon as they see it; and they tend to back that call up with real numbers.
Got a link for any one of those economists in the "hustings"? Although I would be cautious about anything that comes out of a "hustings"; they are very political and politicians have a tendency to lie.
Got a link for any one of those economists in the "hustings"? Although I would be cautious about anything that comes out of a "hustings"; they are very political and politicians have a tendency to lie.
Real economists?
You mean drmocrat political schills?
We all know that they will never admit to it.
Jul 15, 2022 07:31:12 #
Architect1776 wrote:
Real economists?
You mean drmocrat political schills?
We all know that they will never admit to it.
You mean drmocrat political schills?
We all know that they will never admit to it.
Yes, real economists. You know, people that work in the field of economics.
I've yet to see them not call a recession when the numbers show it. At this time, the numbers don't show it.
But I'm sure they will, soon. In fact, I'm counting on it.
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