Covid stats, in a useful format.
Jul 13, 2020 13:30:19 #
I know it's not possible for many folks on this forum to extricate person feelings about politicians or one another when discussing any issue that pertains to political leadership and policy, so I'll just start this one in the attic, even though I'd prefer everyone who peruses the forum to consider this information with an eye towards the future rather than with a suspicious eye on one another. This will be lengthy, but I promise to keep it straight and insult no one except political leadership.... 
The image below is the graphical representation of the analysis I'm about to do and was taken from the CDC website. As of this posting it is the most recent data available. There are two columns that seem to be "pneumonia" but the second is "pneumonia AND Covid" and will not be cited here.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Obviously, data collection beyond the date of this table will drive the numbers shown below in a new direction, and could eventually justify some of the radical measures we have undertaken. Current numbers, though, suggest a catastrophic over-reaction thus far.
Using the data below, for no age group is Covid killing a (statistically notable) greater number of people than pneumonia. (Be aware, also, monetary policy that awards cash to hospitals when Covid is diagnosed means there is a HUGE motivation to attribute all things to Covid, especially during times that 'elective' services are suspended.)
For people under the age of 65, the grand total of Covid deaths is 22 458.
For the same age group, the death total for pneumonia is 24 985.
So, in a world where there is monetary incentive to diagnose Covid as cause of death, pneumonia is still ending more lives than Covid, and this counts virtually all of the full time work force in America. When did anyone even SUGGEST stopping the Earth because of Pneumonia?
Now, I know the Covid cases are increasing, and are likely increasing WAY faster than detection is increasing, and that is a valid concern. As I said, it's possible these numbers I'm evaluating will change a lot, but there's a more specific point or two I want to make.
The total death count cited below by Covid for those under 25 is 179.
The total deaths by all causes is 23 574, meaning Covid is about 0.76 % of the deaths in that age range.
At that rate (99.24/0.76 = 130.7) If you die under the age of 25 there is a 131 to 1 shot it was NOT by Covid.
Another interesting stat is that since 2012, an average of over 2500 teens die in car accidents yearly. Even counting the Covid deaths from 15 to 24, way outside the teen range, one gets 149 deaths over about 6 months, Cutting the 2500 yearly to a half year gives 1250 driving deaths on average. 1250/149 = 8.4
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/teenagers
Since Covid began, stats say a teen is still 8.4 times as likely to die in a vehicle incident than by Covid, and don't forget the monetary incentive to 'pad' Covid stats.
What is really interesting, though, is that at advanced age groups, Covid is not even at 10% of total deaths. That means, despite all the terror, gloom, doom and hysteria, for every Covid death of a patient over 65, at least 10 others are dying.
All of this leads me to believe that this nationwide lock-down, economy killing, and media crusade are simply not justified by the actual numbers. Only intentional hysteria and a refusal to re-evaluate the statistics in a useful manner (the total numbers never decrease, never stop increasing) gets us where we are now.
The new summer workout rules in my state require students social distance and wear masks as they enter the building, that we give a weekly survey, and taht we check temps every day. You may say that sounds....sound. However, once they have their shoes on, wipe the basketballs off and step on the floor, they can breathe on sweat on, and physically contact one another as much as the sport demands, even face to face. So please tell me what good the masks can possibly do? Did a kindergarten student pen these rules?
We are being mandated, dictated, and manipulated by those who have between little and no concern for us, or for reality. These people are doing things that make NO logical sense, and still we are deferring to their 'authority'. I'm baffled.
The town up the road from me had less than half of the people in masks despite the state-wide order, and the police were shopping right along side the citizens. The 'leadership' has lost so much credibility over the ever changing message and ever less justified response that the police are starting to act like they did in certain areas during Prohibition. They simply have decided, locally, that rule X is stupid and they won't enforce it.
My conclusion is that there is not a data-driven reason to restrict the activities of anyone below the age of retirement via executive fiat. Let kids play, swim, bike, play sports, and go to school. They are not at fault and not at any risk beyond typical risks. I do, however, believe that people should not be punished if they have another health issue and WANT to restrict themselves. I believe that those over 65 should be concerned, should possibly see the young members of their families only over a distance or over video for the near future. My conclusion is that the data do not suggest managing Covid's rate of spread is more important than our kid's living active lives and is also not more important than saving small business and the economy. And don't kid yourself, honest people, before it was not allowed TOLD you this is all about how fast people get sick, NOT how many.
If the numbers were to change, I'm open to re-evaluating my position, making me utterly UNlike our leadership, who are still acting like the Infection Fatality Rate is 7% instead of 0.3%. No amount of data, it seems, will sway our political posturers.
The image below is the graphical representation of the analysis I'm about to do and was taken from the CDC website. As of this posting it is the most recent data available. There are two columns that seem to be "pneumonia" but the second is "pneumonia AND Covid" and will not be cited here.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Obviously, data collection beyond the date of this table will drive the numbers shown below in a new direction, and could eventually justify some of the radical measures we have undertaken. Current numbers, though, suggest a catastrophic over-reaction thus far.
Using the data below, for no age group is Covid killing a (statistically notable) greater number of people than pneumonia. (Be aware, also, monetary policy that awards cash to hospitals when Covid is diagnosed means there is a HUGE motivation to attribute all things to Covid, especially during times that 'elective' services are suspended.)
For people under the age of 65, the grand total of Covid deaths is 22 458.
For the same age group, the death total for pneumonia is 24 985.
So, in a world where there is monetary incentive to diagnose Covid as cause of death, pneumonia is still ending more lives than Covid, and this counts virtually all of the full time work force in America. When did anyone even SUGGEST stopping the Earth because of Pneumonia?
Now, I know the Covid cases are increasing, and are likely increasing WAY faster than detection is increasing, and that is a valid concern. As I said, it's possible these numbers I'm evaluating will change a lot, but there's a more specific point or two I want to make.
The total death count cited below by Covid for those under 25 is 179.
The total deaths by all causes is 23 574, meaning Covid is about 0.76 % of the deaths in that age range.
At that rate (99.24/0.76 = 130.7) If you die under the age of 25 there is a 131 to 1 shot it was NOT by Covid.
Another interesting stat is that since 2012, an average of over 2500 teens die in car accidents yearly. Even counting the Covid deaths from 15 to 24, way outside the teen range, one gets 149 deaths over about 6 months, Cutting the 2500 yearly to a half year gives 1250 driving deaths on average. 1250/149 = 8.4
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/teenagers
Since Covid began, stats say a teen is still 8.4 times as likely to die in a vehicle incident than by Covid, and don't forget the monetary incentive to 'pad' Covid stats.
What is really interesting, though, is that at advanced age groups, Covid is not even at 10% of total deaths. That means, despite all the terror, gloom, doom and hysteria, for every Covid death of a patient over 65, at least 10 others are dying.
All of this leads me to believe that this nationwide lock-down, economy killing, and media crusade are simply not justified by the actual numbers. Only intentional hysteria and a refusal to re-evaluate the statistics in a useful manner (the total numbers never decrease, never stop increasing) gets us where we are now.
The new summer workout rules in my state require students social distance and wear masks as they enter the building, that we give a weekly survey, and taht we check temps every day. You may say that sounds....sound. However, once they have their shoes on, wipe the basketballs off and step on the floor, they can breathe on sweat on, and physically contact one another as much as the sport demands, even face to face. So please tell me what good the masks can possibly do? Did a kindergarten student pen these rules?
We are being mandated, dictated, and manipulated by those who have between little and no concern for us, or for reality. These people are doing things that make NO logical sense, and still we are deferring to their 'authority'. I'm baffled.
The town up the road from me had less than half of the people in masks despite the state-wide order, and the police were shopping right along side the citizens. The 'leadership' has lost so much credibility over the ever changing message and ever less justified response that the police are starting to act like they did in certain areas during Prohibition. They simply have decided, locally, that rule X is stupid and they won't enforce it.
My conclusion is that there is not a data-driven reason to restrict the activities of anyone below the age of retirement via executive fiat. Let kids play, swim, bike, play sports, and go to school. They are not at fault and not at any risk beyond typical risks. I do, however, believe that people should not be punished if they have another health issue and WANT to restrict themselves. I believe that those over 65 should be concerned, should possibly see the young members of their families only over a distance or over video for the near future. My conclusion is that the data do not suggest managing Covid's rate of spread is more important than our kid's living active lives and is also not more important than saving small business and the economy. And don't kid yourself, honest people, before it was not allowed TOLD you this is all about how fast people get sick, NOT how many.
If the numbers were to change, I'm open to re-evaluating my position, making me utterly UNlike our leadership, who are still acting like the Infection Fatality Rate is 7% instead of 0.3%. No amount of data, it seems, will sway our political posturers.
Jul 13, 2020 13:37:48 #
Tex-s wrote:
I know it's not possible for many folks on this fo... (show quote)
Figures lie and liars figure.
If you don't believe me ask bilary, pelosi, dopey joe or a plethora of professional lefty liars.
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