Disingenuous, or ignorant, 'math' claims (a rant)
Jun 14, 2020 03:16:53 #
All through the COVID-19 'early days' the media were incessantly waffling between raw data and per-capita data depending on which number they could present as evidence of President Trump's failures. Never mind that these same media sources were backing leftists who tried to block all of President Trump's actions early on...... On Monday of a week, some non-white female would start in on why we did not have the 37 bajillion ventilators Cuomo wanted. On Tuesday, it would be that we have not tested as many people as Italy, or whatever. Then, when Cuomo had to admit they were never going to need that many ventilators, and when the US became, far and away, the leader in raw numbers of tests, then the narratives switched. Almost at the same moment, the COVID testing assault switched to percentages of population, so now Italy had a higher testing rate, AND the infections or deaths were all touted as raw numbers. We've had more deaths than Italy...... With no standard (and not coincidentally, not journalism standards) the press wielded non-stop, intentionally skewed numbers to smear our President.
Now it's the police being painted as universally 'aggressive' and 'racist' with willful, felonious, falsified data analysis. I'm NOT suggesting police reform, in training, in policy, in abolishing unions, or removing prosecutorial protections is not needed. I'm saying the police racism narrative is WRONG, and provably so, while the media narrative actually is a racist one.
https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/analysis.html
According to the link above, from 1999-2018, an averages of 22,500 people died of opioid overdose yearly. Statistically, these deaths are 20+ times greater than death by cop, and highly skewed to the loss of life in the white population. Where is the media outcry? The protests against the doctors killing our people? Riots? Hollywood 'mea culpa' videos? Nah.
Do not watch this next one if you are easily upset. Daniel Shaver (white) killed by police while on his knees. Be honest. Remember the weeks long rioting and national media outrage? And the call to de-fund police? Me either. Do you really remember his name? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/09/us/police-shooting-video-arizona.html
And there's more proof that the 'racist' narrative is simply a lie.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877
This study, focused on data from 2015, found a LARGE number of non-trends.
1) There is a minor trend to suggest white cops are more prone to shoot white suspects than black.
2) There is a minor trend, also, showing that black police are slightly more likely to shoot black suspects.
3) These trends also hold for non-white, non-black, where no race is, in a statistically verifiable way, likely to 'target' any race.
4) No race of cop was statistically more likely to the the shooter of an unarmed suspect, regardless of the race of the suspect.
So, even if one grants the premise (I don't) of a tyrannical, violent police force, there is not a cite-able study showing race is ANY factor.
And the greatest lie of late, and the one that parallels the raw data / percent lie from my first paragraph. It goes like this:
"Blacks are 13% of the population but they are 30% of the death-by-cop numbers while whites are 62% of the population and only 40% of the death-by cop counts. The % numbers say (62-13) that 4.7 times as many whites should be dying and it's only 1.33 times as many. RACISTS!!!!!!!!! "
Um. No. Just no. Let me illustrate, and you'll immediately see the flaw. I'll emulate the math in a sec.
Men are slightly less than half of the population but 97% of the death-by-cop count. SEXISTS!!!!!! I know everyone of you thought of 2 factors immediately that the 'racist' lie omits. I already addressed the first in terms of race, but we all know that 'beat cops' are nowhere near 1 to 1 in the sex breakdown. Closer to 8-1 male dominant job. For 'sexist' to apply, those 1/9th of female cops better be doing 9 times their share of killing. More importantly, though, men commit near 95% of violent crime and, therefore, have a WAY higher number of police/suspected of serious crime interactions.
Similarly, the 62% of the population whites are nearer 25 % of violent crime, meaning they are underrepresented as potential suspects by (2.5 ish) population whereas the black demographic is just under 50% in recent years, over-representing (3.8) their 13%.
The ratio presented, falsely, by the 'racist' claims is
4.7 white deaths to
1 black death but adjusted for % of crime / probability of contentious interaction one gets
4.7 / 2.5 = 1.9 white deaths to
1 x 3.8 = 3.8 black deaths
That ratio is exactly 2:1 in the OPPOSITE direction from the racist claims......
Of course, these numbers are excluding the TYPE of crime suspected and the likelihood of an interaction proceeding to violence based on the suspected crime, but being honest in analysis does, immediately and completely, erase any semblance of truth to the 'racism' narrative.
Please don't fall for the false manipulation of raw data being paired with percentage data. That is nothing but an intentional ploy to stoke division for social or political assault on the rule of law and the laws of math.
Now it's the police being painted as universally 'aggressive' and 'racist' with willful, felonious, falsified data analysis. I'm NOT suggesting police reform, in training, in policy, in abolishing unions, or removing prosecutorial protections is not needed. I'm saying the police racism narrative is WRONG, and provably so, while the media narrative actually is a racist one.
https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/analysis.html
According to the link above, from 1999-2018, an averages of 22,500 people died of opioid overdose yearly. Statistically, these deaths are 20+ times greater than death by cop, and highly skewed to the loss of life in the white population. Where is the media outcry? The protests against the doctors killing our people? Riots? Hollywood 'mea culpa' videos? Nah.
Do not watch this next one if you are easily upset. Daniel Shaver (white) killed by police while on his knees. Be honest. Remember the weeks long rioting and national media outrage? And the call to de-fund police? Me either. Do you really remember his name? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/09/us/police-shooting-video-arizona.html
And there's more proof that the 'racist' narrative is simply a lie.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877
This study, focused on data from 2015, found a LARGE number of non-trends.
1) There is a minor trend to suggest white cops are more prone to shoot white suspects than black.
2) There is a minor trend, also, showing that black police are slightly more likely to shoot black suspects.
3) These trends also hold for non-white, non-black, where no race is, in a statistically verifiable way, likely to 'target' any race.
4) No race of cop was statistically more likely to the the shooter of an unarmed suspect, regardless of the race of the suspect.
So, even if one grants the premise (I don't) of a tyrannical, violent police force, there is not a cite-able study showing race is ANY factor.
And the greatest lie of late, and the one that parallels the raw data / percent lie from my first paragraph. It goes like this:
"Blacks are 13% of the population but they are 30% of the death-by-cop numbers while whites are 62% of the population and only 40% of the death-by cop counts. The % numbers say (62-13) that 4.7 times as many whites should be dying and it's only 1.33 times as many. RACISTS!!!!!!!!! "
Um. No. Just no. Let me illustrate, and you'll immediately see the flaw. I'll emulate the math in a sec.
Men are slightly less than half of the population but 97% of the death-by-cop count. SEXISTS!!!!!! I know everyone of you thought of 2 factors immediately that the 'racist' lie omits. I already addressed the first in terms of race, but we all know that 'beat cops' are nowhere near 1 to 1 in the sex breakdown. Closer to 8-1 male dominant job. For 'sexist' to apply, those 1/9th of female cops better be doing 9 times their share of killing. More importantly, though, men commit near 95% of violent crime and, therefore, have a WAY higher number of police/suspected of serious crime interactions.
Similarly, the 62% of the population whites are nearer 25 % of violent crime, meaning they are underrepresented as potential suspects by (2.5 ish) population whereas the black demographic is just under 50% in recent years, over-representing (3.8) their 13%.
The ratio presented, falsely, by the 'racist' claims is
4.7 white deaths to
1 black death but adjusted for % of crime / probability of contentious interaction one gets
4.7 / 2.5 = 1.9 white deaths to
1 x 3.8 = 3.8 black deaths
That ratio is exactly 2:1 in the OPPOSITE direction from the racist claims......
Of course, these numbers are excluding the TYPE of crime suspected and the likelihood of an interaction proceeding to violence based on the suspected crime, but being honest in analysis does, immediately and completely, erase any semblance of truth to the 'racism' narrative.
Please don't fall for the false manipulation of raw data being paired with percentage data. That is nothing but an intentional ploy to stoke division for social or political assault on the rule of law and the laws of math.
Jun 14, 2020 07:01:37 #
If you want to reply, then register here. Registration is free and your account is created instantly, so you can post right away.