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Just how contagious is COVID-19
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Apr 21, 2020 08:54:00   #
PaulBrit Loc: Merlin, Southern Oregon
 
TriX wrote:
Excellent post - should be a wake up call for those that think the danger is overblown and want to get back to work ASAP regardless of the risk (like the governor of Georgia).


I agree! It’s a wake up call for me and my wife. We live in a county (Josephine) in the south of a State (Oregon) that so far has escaped, greatly escaped, the worst of this crisis. We have to go shopping for us and our animals about once a week. But we are not wearing masks and we should!

Thank you!

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Apr 21, 2020 09:03:10   #
controversy Loc: Wuhan, China
 
yssirk123 wrote:
It's impossible to calculate an accurate mortality rate if you only have data on the number of deaths (numerator) without knowing the number of infections (denominator). Recently released studies indicate the number of infections has been massively understated due to inadequate testing, leading to estimates that the actual mortality rate is more likely in the range of .1% to .1.5%.


Isn't it odd how data always seems to point out the hyperbole coming from the various "expert" sources? In Los Angeles County they did an interesting study you can read about here:

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Here's a short clip from that web site reporting that the actual infection rate is dramatically higher than has been reported - resulting in a dramatically lower death rate calculation that is more like the "regular" flu.

"Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."

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Apr 21, 2020 09:15:06   #
nospambob Loc: Edmond, Oklahoma
 
Thanks for the great post. This really isn't rocket science. If you there is a virus outbreak and --
(1) you have a vaccine and a method of treatment, carry-on business as usual but immunize.
(2) If you cannot immunize, then you identify those who have the virus and quarantine them, and quarantine their first-order contacts so the virus will die out. The rest of the population can move about cautiously.
(3) But, if you don't even know who has the virus, you lock everyone down and throw your economy in the crapper until you are able to test and determine who can get back to work safely.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:21:30   #
pendennis
 
richandtd wrote:
...
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter...


Sorry, Doc, but the "mar-a-lago" shot is gratuitous and unnecessary.

And the number of infections is vastly under-reported. Data from a verified USC study indicates under-reporting is by a factor of 40 to 80.

PS - My son is an ER tech, right on the front lines, and I get blow-by-blow from him.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:32:36   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
controversy wrote:
Isn't it odd how data always seems to point out the hyperbole coming from the various "expert" sources? In Los Angeles County they did an interesting study you can read about here:

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Here's a short clip from that web site reporting that the actual infection rate is dramatically higher than has been reported - resulting in a dramatically lower death rate calculation that is more like the "regular" flu.

"Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."
Isn't it odd how data always seems to point out th... (show quote)


I certainly hope that is the case. However, I would point out that (a)the presence of antibodies does not indicate that a person has actually had the disease (although they may), just that they have been exposed to it, and (b) considering that even if the mortality rate were no more than common influenza, the total number of deaths so far (more in the last month than the entire flu season) would indicate that it is much more contagious (and for the near future, there is no vaccine). It’s the number of deaths that matter, not just the percentages. Time and better/more testing will tell...

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Apr 21, 2020 09:32:45   #
bajadreamer Loc: Baja California Sur
 
Bill_de wrote:
Since there has been relatively little testing for covid-19 and no existing statistics to fall back on, how do they come up with a figure like 2% mortality rate? There could be millions of people that were infected and got over it without any medical intervention. Wouldn't that drastically reduce the mortality percentage?

I'm not saying there isn't a big problem and we should all do what we have to to stay safe. I just wonder how all the facts are determined.

---

---


You base "facts" on what your current state of knowledge is. Right now, based on what is known-not what "could be" the mortality rate is what it is. Might that change when we have more knowledge? Without a doubt, but that is "could be" right now.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:38:16   #
phlash46 Loc: Westchester County, New York
 
My son is an ER doc; he says much the same. Thanks for this, bless you and stay safe.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:38:39   #
Bayou
 
This is at least the fifth version I've seen of this from an unsigned, unnamed "ER Doc", distributed by a nurse who is someone's high school biology teacher's cousin, fabricating data out of whole cloth. We haven't the slightest clue what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have already had it and been asymptomatic, or so mildly sick as to not have sought professional care.

There were even some of these stories from "Italy", 1000 words plus, written in perfect English by an "ER Doc" who was up to his elbows in dying patients. Sure.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:44:37   #
olemikey Loc: 6 mile creek, Spacecoast Florida
 
rehess wrote:
The US isn't dead broke.

Our wealth is not in oil - which has little value right now.

Our wealth is not in gold - although we still have some in our vaults {were some other countries have US dollars}

Our wealth does not come from what our people produce

Our wealth is in our people themselves - and we are going to save as many of them as we are able.


EXCELLENT SENTIMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Apr 21, 2020 09:47:32   #
Redmond Loc: Oregon
 
I'm going to keep on staying home, thanks for the information. My son thinks the flu is more dangerous!!!! Then there are the ones out protesting to open this country up. I only see trouble and more pain in this country's future....

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Apr 21, 2020 09:49:35   #
boberic Loc: Quiet Corner, Connecticut. Ex long Islander
 
richandtd wrote:
This is Sobering...
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE

Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.
This is Sobering... br Posted by one of my high sc... (show quote)


The "stay at home" edict is medical nonesense. You are far safer (maintain 6 feet separation) outbside. Inside there is no air movement. Outside there is, so thye chance of contagion is less. Wear a mask, if you must. Go outside . P.S, outside, the mask will not protect protect you.,

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Apr 21, 2020 09:53:07   #
olemikey Loc: 6 mile creek, Spacecoast Florida
 
boberic wrote:
The "stay at home" edict is medical nonesense. You are far safer (maintain 6 feet separation) outbside. Inside there is no air movement. Outside there is, so thye chance of contagion is less. Wear a mask, if you must. Go outside . P.S, outside, the mask will not protect protect you.,


To me "Stay at home" doesn't mean hiding out inside...it means staying on your property, limiting contact, wear a mask if you want. My opinion.

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Apr 21, 2020 09:55:34   #
rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA
 
Bayou wrote:
This is at least the fifth version I've seen of this from an unsigned, unnamed "ER Doc", distributed by a nurse who is someone's high school biology teacher's cousin, fabricating data out of whole cloth. We haven't the slightest clue what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have already had it and been asymptomatic, or so mildly sick as to not have sought professional care.

There were even some of these stories from "Italy", 1000 words plus, written in perfect English by an "ER Doc" who was up to his elbows in dying patients. Sure.
This is at least the fifth version I've seen of th... (show quote)

Regardless of how many actually catch the disease - because of our abysmal testing, we don’t know how many are infected - but we do know that nearly four times as many Hoosiers died in the first three months of this infection than died in the first three months of the “flu season” in 2017-18 despite our ‘sheltering at home’ for the last month. I doubt Indiana is exceptional in this regard. This virus is a killer.

Stay safe everyone!!

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Apr 21, 2020 10:03:59   #
nimbushopper Loc: Tampa, FL
 
Thank you Doc for that good explanation!

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Apr 21, 2020 10:12:54   #
Retired CPO Loc: Travel full time in an RV
 
olemikey wrote:
EXCELLENT SENTIMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Sentiment, yes. But I prefer rainbows and Unicorns. Oh, and cotton candy. Sentiment doesn't come close to making anyone feel better about a ruined economy. And if people are so valuable...I wonder what they taste like?

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