IDguy Loc: Idaho

Just so you know two things:
1. I’m in the susceptible population by age.
2. I have dearly loved grandchildren and great grandchildren that are in school.
And perhaps that I was a System Engineer. I know how to model and thereby understand systems like this. Alas, I haven’t done that analysis on this system. But I know there are people who can.

The solution focus today is to slow the overall infection rate to a level where hospitals can handle the serious cases. Thus policies to keep all humans apart.

We know some things about this virus that offer us better solutions.

First, though, we need to understand that this virus will not abate on its own until our whole human population has some immunity to it. That might be by vaccine but also comes from humans who survive the virus. The latter are immune and more importantly can’t infect others.

One thing that often works in System Analysis is to invert your thinking. Examine each of your assumptions, and evaluate the effect of changing the assumption.

We all agree that our children are most important. Thus we need to protect them first. So the right thing to do is close schools: infection spreading machines.

But what if we examined, and possibly change, some assumptions behind such an approach? What if we took the view that the best way to stop infecting the vulnerable is to focus on infecting the vectors who infect them, so they are no longer carriers? It can take a few weeks, vs. the many months needed for a vaccine.

Of course we’d need to ensure infecting our potential vectors. The dimwits opposed to vaccination try this (an irresponsible approach where vaccinations exist). In this case it might work. Not much different from original smallpox vaccinations.

Thoughts?

tomcat

Who would make up the class of vectors that be infected? If you are talking about infecting children, then you can forget that idea. If you are talking about infecting the millennials so they become vectors, then that's a different case. Either way, you are playing with a lit stick of dynamite........

If we collect blood plasma from the people that have been infected, we can process it to get a concentrated antibody prep that could be used to give people temporary immunity to the disease. This can be done within a month's timeframe....

burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC

I’m a former systems guy, too. I think your idea has a lot of logic behind it. But it would be hard for many — maybe most — to see the heart in it.

What we’re trying to do is avoid natural selection long enough to create a vaccine, or a cure, or a viable treatment. That’s risky business in itself, but it may be more palatable to the masses.

Meanwhile, I wonder, how many who died of the flu this winter really had novel coronavirus? How long has it REALLY been here?

rmorrison1116 Loc: Near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania

How many times in your lifetime have you had a cold?

IDguy Loc: Idaho

Easy. Those who statistically have no or least severe symptoms. From what I have seen that might be from youngest to oldest. e.g. week 1 infect kindergarten. Week 2 grade 1. etc.

tomcat

Yeah, you're playing with fire here when you start talking about infecting children with this virus.

sb Loc: Florida's East Coast

So we round up all the children, put them in a concentration camp away from adults, and infect them? It would undoubtedly help overall, but a bit impractical.... One conservative commentator suggested that we just let everyone get infected and get it over with "so we can get back to business". Well, I suppose that might be best for business..... And we would only be missing about 5% of the population - maybe 10%, since many people would not be able to get treatment.

ras422 Loc: Virginia

Did you ever wonder why there is no cold vaccine? What happens if the young did have a problem and died. Remember early data said the 30 and 40 year olds were ok but they are not. While I understand your logic and brilliant engineers have had a wonderful impact on medicine this has no fail safe. Answer cold viruses mutate. This is not an easy situation hopefully an antiviral med, immunization etc will be developed.we are out of nasal swabs and using throat swabs much less accurate—need better and faster testing. Also go read or google about the arrested Harvard professor and the wuhan research facility. Needs to be more in mainstream news about it. Rich,M.D.

ltatko

UHH=Cameras and Photography!!!

Len

Mi630

The idea of closing schools was flawed from the start. If they wanted to close schools then they needed a 24 hour curfew on kids to stay home. I have had reason to go to Costco and the grocery store. Both places were swarming with kids. Obviously interacting with older people. Closing schools AND making them stay home was the obvious solution to help keeping the spread of the virus under control.
In China, the mortality rate for people aged 10-39 was 0.2%. The flu every year kills more kids but they don’t shut everything down.
I worry that from now on anytime word of a new virus going around starts the whole economy will be shut down. Let’s face facts. Illnesses will kill people. But now the economy will be ruined and MILLIONS of kids will be going very hungry because their parents are out of work.

dpullum Loc: Tampa Florida

Part of what IDguy said is, "One thing that often works in System Analysis is to invert your thinking."

I employed this inverted-thinking in my work in industrial process refinement, I started at the output and worked toward the start of the line, outside the box, people usually start at the beginning of the line. In the case of this viral infection one should pretend to be the virus; to think about what the virus likes and its vulnerabilities. As IDguy says " invert your thinking."

Too often modern medicine is too modern: example superbug bacteria feast on antibiotics, but put copper sulfate glycerine on the infection and the bacteria is killed none live and develop immunity to the treatment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimicrobial_properties_of_copper

Another example is Syphillus while touring the new, before built, nuke lab in the 60's at UofM I ask why so much plumbing. It was an old Syphillus Hotbox cure room. Especially effective for neurosyphilis as PrezT perhaps has. "Scalding Syphillus"
https://www.jscimedcentral.com/InfectiousDiseases/infectiousdiseases-4-1047.pdf

Elevated temperature as in fever changes the immune system for the better:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111101130200.htm

CWGordon

Wow! I cannot believe how many responses here seem to advocate infecting others, especially children. I thought the Chinese methodology was harsh! We espouse Democracy in this Country, yet many find it very easy to become very autocratic when Democracy appears a bit inconvenient. We don’t have the knowledge to be able to determine the effect doing such a thing might engender. This sounds much like what was done during WWll, by the European Dictatorships. Experiments in the “medical” interests resulted in what we called War Crimes. Mengele and others I am sure would find such measures as are being suggestes as totally accept able. These ideas frighten me and I hope most others. I know the goal is for the greater good, but...

dpullum Loc: Tampa Florida

"So we round up all the children, put them in a concentration camp away from adults,"
But SB, Trump was thinking ahead like the "sleeping profit," Edgar Cayce, and this is why Trump has the Hispanic Children confined at the Southern Border. They will without intervention become infected and those that live will become a source of plasma.

mas24 Loc: Southern CA

Some say this Coronavirus was in existence in China during late November of 2019. By around late December, it is claimed a Chinese doctor had alerted the government about this virus. That doctor apparently was silenced by the government, and later died of the virus. Early January 2020, is when it was fully known by the World Health Organization, and the CDC. And the US government was alerted. It, has been said that if China had alerted the World Nations about this Coronavirus, when it was known to be dangerous, that it may have been easier to eliminate it. It also appears that the virus does not discriminate by age either. Some college students on Spring Break, partying on a Florida beach, contracted the Coronavirus just days ago. They are in isolation. This Coronavirus has changed my everyday life, in my community. Schools and Libraries are closed, you can't sit in a restaurant and have dinner. Only take out and delivery. After, visiting several stores, and driving nearly 90 miles, I finally was able to get a 12 pack of toilet paper. But, there were no eggs, and only a few loaves of bread left on the shelves. And now it is causing massive unemployment. And that will have a negative impact on our economy. Trying to stay healthy, and people not having a job, is an interesting mix. Something, I never envisioned. Now, the US Federal Reserve, is bracing for this disaster, by sending out checks, to taxpayers. To help quell the economic suffering. $1.6 Trillion worth. And, some say that will not be enough? If the situation doesn't get any better. I'm hoping this will be behind us. As soon as it can be possible. I have not been tested for this Coronavirus. For years, I have had allergies, and take medicine for it today. But, I have no fever or coughs, Time will tell.

CWGordon

mas:
I agree with much of what you say. However, money to be sent (1.6) has not quite yet been final ized. It is necessary. The money is being held up because the large money for big businesses is being doled out by one man as he sees fit, w/o any accountability. Let us separate the money for state and local gov’t and individuals and send it now. Let us work out the details for big business after we take care of the little guys. We should not tie such issues together.