RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

The following link is to a thorough analysis of the way the virus has spread internationally. It looks like we are about 11 days behind Italy now and what we do each day can make a huge difference.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

lamiaceae Loc: San Luis Obispo County, CA

Why no epidemiologists who actually know something about the virus?

buckwheat Loc: Clarkdale, AZ and Belen NM

The brother of my audiologist is an epidemiologist and told him that in the very near future almost everyone in the US will have the virus to some extent. However, he believes the mortality rate will be far less than the flu, and the panic is way more out of control than the virus itself.

CaptainBobBrown

lamiaceae: Not sure what your question is but this article published by Thomas Pueyo nicely summarizes a lot of data about the disease to make the point that immediate action as urged by Dr. Anthony Fauci at CDC and many other U.S. and international experts around the world is vital.

As for "who actually know something about the virus?" When you read the details of COVID-19's physiology and modes of infection it's quite daunting at the lay person's level to understand but it is clear that this version of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (aka SARS II) is very different in effect as we can tell from the data nicely summarized in the charts. SARS I was not nearly as contagious and the mortality and morbidity rates were much lower.

Part of this might stem from how much longer COVID-19 remains viable on surfaces even though it has a fatty instead of protein coating that is less vulnerable to the sprays used for large area disinfection. This factor is thought to contribute to the rapid development of "community contagion" where cases occur with no known contact with a carrier. It's one of the many reasons authorities recommend washing hands much more frequently.

The fatty coating of COVID-19 is more easily broken down by soapy solutions which is another reason why authorities of all stripe are urging everyone to wash hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. That's how long it takes the soap and friction action to break up the fatty virus coating so that viral particles can be washed away.

It's the "hooks" projecting from the virus coating that gets a first grip on our cell walls and leads to the breach which enables the virus to enter the target cell and hijack it's RNA to begin replication.
While COVID-19 might persist on surfaces for hours to days it's our hands that are a major vector of the virus to our mucus membranes so hand washing, with soap and or alcohol wipes is a major remediation measure for ourselves and to reduce spreading the virus to others through direct or surface contact.

The fact that COVID-19 also survives well in moisture droplets is part of the reason for it's unusually high infection rate so it's a strong reason to avoid being in the "radiation zone" of a person projecting moisture droplets, i.e. coughing or sneezing. This is impossible to do where one is forced into close proximity with many others as at public events or even family gatherings. Hence the need to cancel activities bringing people together in close proximity.

Some things not yet known by virologists:
1) Why the difference in age vulnerabilities (young v. old mortality and morbidity) as compared to SARS I?
2) Why the preference of Covid-19 for the mucus membranes at the back of the throat (which leads to a dominant early symptom of sore throat first)?
3) Why the preference once established in the body for lung tissue producing the characteristic filmy images in cat scans.

They know the clouding of the images is due to the great volume of burst lung cells from the rapid multiplication of the virus but not why it affects lung tissue disproportionately? What is known is that once established in the lungs where tissue destruction proceeds almost unhindered by our immune systems the body attempts to keep going by a huge spike in cytokines. This "cytokine storm" is a kind of autoimmune response which attacks many other organs and is a frequent cause of the deaths and high morbidity rates among those with compromised immune systems.

One of the peculiarities of the definition of "compromised immune system" is that it seems to be based on a particular set of chronic diseases rather than on the much simpler metric of white blood cell count. If "compromised immune system" were more simply defined as a WBC count lower than the normal range than many undergoing cancer treatments would also be included in the vulnerable population count. Of course, there is a large overlap in the populations undergoing various cancer treatments and the elderly population but it's not 100%.

In any case "social distancing" and frequent hand washing remain our best preventatives for the next year or two.

allanj Loc: New York City

Rich, very good article. Thanks for posting it.

RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

You are welcome. It’s a different approach than many knee jerk reactions/opinions that are so prevalent and, as an Engineer, it really caught my attention. We have the luxury of being able to lock down and wait-and-see. Hopefully, the decisions people make turn out to be the best ones for them and those around them.

RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

Here’s the National Geographic’s published thoughts about the damage done to our bodies:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/

LCD

The article is a dive into epidemiology science and statistics but in an understandable and relatable way. Thanks for the post.

RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

Thanks LCD. Safe journey.

RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

Here’s a print screen from a few days ago comparing the progression of Covid-19 in the U.S. to its progress in Italy 11 days before. Today we are still about 11 days behind Italy.

RichJ207 Loc: Sammamish, WA

Sobering to see Italy’s numbers today and what they are finally doing to address the Pandemic. Will that be us in 11 days?