An article in the UK Express caught my attention a couple days ago:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1159227/weather-forecast-long-range-solar-minimum-maximum-ice-age-space-weather-newsI did not trust their discussion so found the actual abstract they were reporting:
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1. Sci Rep. 2019 Jun 24;9(1):9197. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-45584-3.
Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a
millennial timescale.
Zharkova VV(1), Shepherd SJ(2), Zharkov SI(3), Popova E(4)(5).
Author information:
(1)Northumbria University, Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical
Engineering, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 1XE, UK.
valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk.
(2)University of Bradford, School of Engineering, Bradford, BD7 1DP, UK.
(3)University of Hull, Department of Physics and Mathematics, Kingston upon Hull,
HU6 7RX, UK.
(4)Nasir al-Din al-Tusi Shamakhi Astrophysical Observatory Azerbaijan, AZ 1000,
Pirqulu, Azerbaijan.
(5)National Research University, Higher School of Economics, 101000, Moscow,
Russia.
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field
associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the
Sun indicate that the
solar activity is heading in the next three decades
(2019-2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand,
a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder
minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI)
by a value of about 1-1.5 Wm-2 closely correlated with an increase of the
baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two
opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field
variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong
oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand
(350-400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In
addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a
period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a
running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles.
Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand
solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle
start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its
maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These
oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a
long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and
closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in
the past two centuries.
This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six
centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial
temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-45584-3
PMCID: PMC6591297
PMID: 31235834
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I have bolded two thoughts.
Observations:
1. If we are entering a 30-40 year period similar to the Little Ice Age (which occurred in pulses from the 13th to 19th centuries), why would we want to spend incredible amounts of limited resources on driving the temperature down...which is hardly likely anyway if the Chinese and the Indians do not want to cooperate?
2. How good are scientists who predict a 2.5 degree Celsius overall temperature increase in the
next six centuries ....when the latest IPCC report discusses higher increases in the next 100 years?
Just remember: "97% of the world's climate scientists have agreed that there is man-made warming."
I wonder how long this can stay out of The Attic.