Crystal Ball or just Sci-Fi?
Jan 19, 2018 05:48:39 #
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said
its competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla
(obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon et al.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although it does
not own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more-or-less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer
lawyers in the future; only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more
accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition
software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030,
computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and you can be productive while driving. Our kids
will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million
km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car
companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better
car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. The car insurance
business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't
last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the
"Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes
your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it.
It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world-class medical analysis, almost for free. Goodbye,
medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100
times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D
printing shoes.
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the
need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the
past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoes at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?" If the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in third-world countries can then become managers of their
field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish that
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the
market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be
labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" that can already tell in which mood
you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when the truth is being told.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than
one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time,
probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means,
everyone has the same access to world-class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn
at school in First World countries. There have already been releases
of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we
give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and
everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen
within half a year.
Are we ready for all this?!? I'm guessing that at least some of this will happen.
its competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla
(obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon et al.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although it does
not own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more-or-less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer
lawyers in the future; only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more
accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition
software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030,
computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and you can be productive while driving. Our kids
will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million
km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car
companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better
car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. The car insurance
business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't
last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the
"Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes
your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it.
It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world-class medical analysis, almost for free. Goodbye,
medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100
times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D
printing shoes.
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the
need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the
past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoes at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?" If the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in third-world countries can then become managers of their
field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish that
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the
market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be
labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" that can already tell in which mood
you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when the truth is being told.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than
one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time,
probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means,
everyone has the same access to world-class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn
at school in First World countries. There have already been releases
of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we
give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and
everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen
within half a year.
Are we ready for all this?!? I'm guessing that at least some of this will happen.
Jan 19, 2018 06:46:17 #
Jan 19, 2018 06:56:18 #
berchman
Loc: South Central PA
Largobob wrote:
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (M... (show quote)
There is one factor that you mention in passing but dismiss in connection with solar energy and the electric power companies. That factor is the resistance of large corporations who supply the payoffs to politicians for their campaigns. And you omit human cantankerousness. Apple didn't put a heart rate tracking capacity in their watch to detect arrhythmia because they didn't want to get sued. And, finally, how can a six story building be "printed"? Steel beams, concrete, printed?
Jan 19, 2018 07:03:31 #
berchman wrote:
There is one factor that you mention in passing but dismiss in connection with solar energy and the electric power companies. That factor is the resistance of large corporations who supply the payoffs to politicians for their campaigns. And you omit human cantankerousness. Apple didn't put a heart rate tracking capacity in their watch to detect arrhythmia because they didn't want to get sued. And, finally, how can a six story building be "printed"? Steel beams, concrete, printed?
Check this out
https://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
Jan 19, 2018 07:12:27 #
Jan 19, 2018 08:11:13 #
berchman
Loc: South Central PA
cedymock wrote:
Check this out
https://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
https://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
Okay, but "The company then placed beam columns and steel rebar within the walls, along with insulation, reserving space for pipe lines, windows and doors." The beam columns, steel rebar, windows and doors were not 3D printed.
Jan 19, 2018 08:29:41 #
berchman wrote:
Okay, but "The company then placed beam columns and steel rebar within the walls, along with insulation, reserving space for pipe lines, windows and doors." The beam columns, steel rebar, windows and doors were not 3D printed.
The construction methods, according to the company, are able to save 60 percent of the materials typically needed to construct a home, and can be printed in a time span which equates to just 30 percent of that of traditional construction. In total, 80 percent less labor is needed, meaning more affordable construction, and less risk of injury to contractors.
Jan 20, 2018 06:16:43 #
Largobob wrote:
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (M... (show quote)
Try wandering back roads and side roads in a self driving car. Take the Apache Trail in one.
They might be Ok for snowflakes that never leave LA or NYC but beyond that they will always be useless.
You can't program wandering just like a GPS can't do it and that is what it is.
Jan 20, 2018 07:54:58 #
berchman
Loc: South Central PA
Architect1776 wrote:
Try wandering back roads and side roads in a self driving car. Take the Apache Trail in one.
They might be Ok for snowflakes that never leave LA or NYC but beyond that they will always be useless.
You can't program wandering just like a GPS can't do it and that is what it is.
They might be Ok for snowflakes that never leave LA or NYC but beyond that they will always be useless.
You can't program wandering just like a GPS can't do it and that is what it is.
Do you think a self-driving car might be useful for an elderly person who can no longer safely drive but needs access to transportation because he lives in the country with no public transportation? Do you think self-driving cars might save lives because the a-holes who are texting and driving won't be crashing into you?
Jan 20, 2018 08:27:54 #
berchman
Loc: South Central PA
cedymock wrote:
The construction methods, according to the company, are able to save 60 percent of the materials typically needed to construct a home, and can be printed in a time span which equates to just 30 percent of that of traditional construction. In total, 80 percent less labor is needed, meaning more affordable construction, and less risk of injury to contractors.
I am not gainsaying the benefits of 3D construction. I just didn't believe that an entire finished building could be done that way. And it can't.
Jan 20, 2018 09:01:08 #
berchman wrote:
I am not gainsaying the benefits of 3D construction. I just didn't believe that an entire finished building could be done that way. And it can't.
I agree
Jan 20, 2018 21:13:17 #
http://www.weeklystandard.com/terrorists-could-use-teslas-to-kill-us/article/2011171
--Bob
--Bob
Largobob wrote:
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (M... (show quote)
Jan 20, 2018 23:39:33 #
Largobob's final paragraph: "Are we ready for all this?!? I'm guessing that at least some of this will happen."
I am sure that most all of what he stated *will* occur! When and how soon remains to be seen, but surely in a lot of our member's life. 3D printers are certainly here and becoming capable of producing more complex products every day. AI is already here (think of the extremely vast, highly interconnected communications network), and will be more and more important in our future (barring catastrophic human stupidity). Not mentioned, and truly the scariest prediction only hinted at in "artificial veal from a petri dish", is when the 3D printer can create and build complex organic products. Now, *that* could be a real game changer.
I am sure that most all of what he stated *will* occur! When and how soon remains to be seen, but surely in a lot of our member's life. 3D printers are certainly here and becoming capable of producing more complex products every day. AI is already here (think of the extremely vast, highly interconnected communications network), and will be more and more important in our future (barring catastrophic human stupidity). Not mentioned, and truly the scariest prediction only hinted at in "artificial veal from a petri dish", is when the 3D printer can create and build complex organic products. Now, *that* could be a real game changer.
Jan 21, 2018 06:47:11 #
berchman wrote:
Do you think a self-driving car might be useful for an elderly person who can no longer safely drive but needs access to transportation because he lives in the country with no public transportation? Do you think self-driving cars might save lives because the a-holes who are texting and driving won't be crashing into you?
Nope.
Just like your computers fail and other electronics fail. Also many rural roads I drive here in PA have no markings. Also satellite communication can be lost and at 60mph even for a second havoc can wrought in that long of a time.
Even advanced aircraft still have 2 pilots. Can you say miracle on the Hudson?
Jan 21, 2018 08:12:21 #
Architect1776 wrote:
Nope.
Just like your computers fail and other electronics fail. Also many rural roads I drive here in PA have no markings. Also satellite communication can be lost and at 60mph even for a second havoc can wrought in that long of a time.
Even advanced aircraft still have 2 pilots. Can you say miracle on the Hudson?
Just like your computers fail and other electronics fail. Also many rural roads I drive here in PA have no markings. Also satellite communication can be lost and at 60mph even for a second havoc can wrought in that long of a time.
Even advanced aircraft still have 2 pilots. Can you say miracle on the Hudson?
There will be new technology of that I am certain, and always with the good it brings there will be the bad. Embrace what like, withstand what you must and stay away from what you dislike that’s my best guess.
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