will you buy another DSLR?
Oct 9, 2018 09:26:39 #
Oct 9, 2018 10:21:18 #
I have pretty much decided my next body will be mirrorless. The EOS R can use all my current lenses including the EF-S lenses. By the time I am ready for a new body (two years or so) I will be able to get a good deal on a refurbished 2nd generation Canon FF mirrorless.
Oct 9, 2018 11:45:54 #
larryepage
Loc: North Texas area
I missed this discussion when it first came around, so am glad to see it resurrected.
It will be interesting to see how much of this choice will be left to us as the consumer, and how much will be made for us. I remember a similar situation back in the 1980s when Compact Discs came onto the market as an alternative to pressed vinyl LPs. There was vigorous, intelligent debate among the knowledgeable people who "knew what was best" concerning which format was preferable, and whether switching was the right thing to do. CDs offered significantly extended dynamic range and immunity from noise, as well as improved frequency response at both ends of the spectrum. But in many cases, the audio produced wasn't as pleasing, often sounding more harsh. And in the most extreme situations, very unpleasant artifacts arose when audio was recorded at a level that was too high or included frequencies too near the sampling rate. Besides...music is analog and should be recorded and stored in an analog manner. And vinyl recordings produced a sound that was more "musical," that sounded more like it was supposed to sound.
The two formats existed side by side for a few years. We even saw the development of very advanced (and expensive) forms of vinyl recordings which rendered spectacularly beautiful sound when played on the best equipment. But suddenly (I think it was in 1988, but some of you may remember more exactly), vinyl recordings disappeared. It happened almost overnight. Within a span of two or three months, new vinyl albums disappeared from essentially all places where they had been sold, except from a few specialty retailers and some who were working to sell off available inventory. The sales racks were replaced by extended counters filled with CDs. And all recordings were available in CD format, not just a few that were certain sales and had been largely selected to help encourage consumers to purchase CD players.
I don't know if this model will forecast what is likely to happen in photography or not. But I do know that I work with a lot of kids and young people. And I find very few who have an interest in photography beyond using their cell phones for snapshots. And the new "old people" don't seem to be interested in photography like we are. So absent some big change, generational impacts are going to increasingly push the market for specialized photographic equipment down. There will come a point when manufacturers will have to make hard choices about how to support that smaller market, and how many choices they can offer.
One key area that this affects is research and development. In my opinion (and after buying and using one), it is likely that the primary reason that Nikon gave us a D850 was to try some things that they were planning to offer in the Z7. Otherwise some of the changes from the D810 don't seem to make a lot of sense. But as a former manufacturing person, further evolving those changes into the Z7 is pure genius to me in terms of minimizing risk to the company and reducing the R&D cost that had to be rolled into the Z7's price. This hints to me where Nikon's view of the future is directed.
So no, I do not believe that it is a given that a full line of DSLRs will survive if the market shifts to a new format. Especially when there are plusses and minuses with the new technology. Some will argue in my example above that vinyl recordings are making a comeback. They are correct. But only to a very limited extent from a few outlets, and at a significantly higher price than before.
Now to the original question...I would be inclined to seriously consider a Z7 or something similar for my next camera body, even though that choice would cause me to have to eventually retire several really good "D" lenses. One contributor to that choice would be concern around the viability of ongoing support for the DSLR line.
It will be interesting to see how much of this choice will be left to us as the consumer, and how much will be made for us. I remember a similar situation back in the 1980s when Compact Discs came onto the market as an alternative to pressed vinyl LPs. There was vigorous, intelligent debate among the knowledgeable people who "knew what was best" concerning which format was preferable, and whether switching was the right thing to do. CDs offered significantly extended dynamic range and immunity from noise, as well as improved frequency response at both ends of the spectrum. But in many cases, the audio produced wasn't as pleasing, often sounding more harsh. And in the most extreme situations, very unpleasant artifacts arose when audio was recorded at a level that was too high or included frequencies too near the sampling rate. Besides...music is analog and should be recorded and stored in an analog manner. And vinyl recordings produced a sound that was more "musical," that sounded more like it was supposed to sound.
The two formats existed side by side for a few years. We even saw the development of very advanced (and expensive) forms of vinyl recordings which rendered spectacularly beautiful sound when played on the best equipment. But suddenly (I think it was in 1988, but some of you may remember more exactly), vinyl recordings disappeared. It happened almost overnight. Within a span of two or three months, new vinyl albums disappeared from essentially all places where they had been sold, except from a few specialty retailers and some who were working to sell off available inventory. The sales racks were replaced by extended counters filled with CDs. And all recordings were available in CD format, not just a few that were certain sales and had been largely selected to help encourage consumers to purchase CD players.
I don't know if this model will forecast what is likely to happen in photography or not. But I do know that I work with a lot of kids and young people. And I find very few who have an interest in photography beyond using their cell phones for snapshots. And the new "old people" don't seem to be interested in photography like we are. So absent some big change, generational impacts are going to increasingly push the market for specialized photographic equipment down. There will come a point when manufacturers will have to make hard choices about how to support that smaller market, and how many choices they can offer.
One key area that this affects is research and development. In my opinion (and after buying and using one), it is likely that the primary reason that Nikon gave us a D850 was to try some things that they were planning to offer in the Z7. Otherwise some of the changes from the D810 don't seem to make a lot of sense. But as a former manufacturing person, further evolving those changes into the Z7 is pure genius to me in terms of minimizing risk to the company and reducing the R&D cost that had to be rolled into the Z7's price. This hints to me where Nikon's view of the future is directed.
So no, I do not believe that it is a given that a full line of DSLRs will survive if the market shifts to a new format. Especially when there are plusses and minuses with the new technology. Some will argue in my example above that vinyl recordings are making a comeback. They are correct. But only to a very limited extent from a few outlets, and at a significantly higher price than before.
Now to the original question...I would be inclined to seriously consider a Z7 or something similar for my next camera body, even though that choice would cause me to have to eventually retire several really good "D" lenses. One contributor to that choice would be concern around the viability of ongoing support for the DSLR line.
Dec 21, 2018 19:16:27 #
Just an addendum to this old discussion, Canon rumors is saying "Canon Rumors is reporting that Canon will likely announce an update to the 1D X Mark II in late 2019 and that the 5D Mark IV will too get another update (though it's not clear when) before that series goes mirrorless."
from Fstoppers: https://fstoppers.com/gear/canon-still-plans-release-least-one-more-generation-professional-dslrs-320459
from Fstoppers: https://fstoppers.com/gear/canon-still-plans-release-least-one-more-generation-professional-dslrs-320459
Dec 21, 2018 21:19:20 #
I bought a vintage Olympus E-410 DSLR for nostalgia purposes. It's actually a decent camera - makes a lot of interesting noises when shooting too.
I won't buy another one unless I can find a cheap one of those 14 MP Kodak antiques for my collections.
I won't buy another one unless I can find a cheap one of those 14 MP Kodak antiques for my collections.
Dec 21, 2018 21:52:02 #
CHG_CANON wrote:
If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?
I purchase my last DSLR in 2017, sold it in 2018, lost my shirt but I'd do it again.
Dec 21, 2018 22:11:26 #
I will eventually buy mirrorless but for now Iām enjoying the feel of the solid weight and build of my 5D4 and D850. Taking great photos is not about paying several grand for a camera, although I enjoy playing with their electronic capabilities. š
Dec 21, 2018 22:39:21 #
CHG_CANON wrote:
Just an addendum to this old discussion, Canon rumors is saying "Canon Rumors is reporting that Canon will likely announce an update to the 1D X Mark II in late 2019 and that the 5D Mark IV will too get another update (though it's not clear when) before that series goes mirrorless."
from Fstoppers: https://fstoppers.com/gear/canon-still-plans-release-least-one-more-generation-professional-dslrs-320459
from Fstoppers: https://fstoppers.com/gear/canon-still-plans-release-least-one-more-generation-professional-dslrs-320459
Yes, I had read the 1Dx before the Olympics, so no mirrorless before the end of 2020!
SS
Dec 21, 2018 22:42:56 #
SharpShooter wrote:
Yes, I had read the 1Dx before the Olympics, so no mirrorless before the end of 2020!
SS
SS
By then Nikon will be ready for you.
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