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Feb 4, 2021 08:47:22   #
jlg1000 Loc: Uruguay / South America
 
Sharing this blog about camera market. If it is right on the spot, it spells trouble for amateurs in the near future.

Maybe, this year is the last chance to buy good gear for many...

https://www.eoshd.com/news/camera-sales-volume-in-units-shipped-now-close-to-pre-digital-levels-of-year-1999/

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Feb 4, 2021 09:34:56   #
Hereford Loc: Palm Coast, FL
 
Paints a pretty dire picture. Young people are happy with their phone cameras and their reduced fidelity MP-3 music, etc. Few are interested in perfection of any kind in their lives. If young people won't step up into DSLR or mirrorless, the future looks bleak indeed.

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Feb 4, 2021 09:40:12   #
autofocus
 
does look pretty grim. Although he briefly touched on it but I think the iPhones, et al, with their ever improving features and quality have taken a major toll on the higher end SLR and mirrorless cameras. The point and shoots were the first to take the hit...will the more advanced ones be next??

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Feb 4, 2021 10:51:16   #
bsprague Loc: Lacey, WA, USA
 
It may look grim for amateurs that insist on using DSLRs. But amateurs that concentrate on results, not equipment, are better off than ever. A few weeks ago I spent $600 on a Chinese made camera that is the polar opposite of a DSLR. It is small, doesn't need a tripod and shoots both RAW files and 4K video. It even has a built in wireless mic system!

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Feb 4, 2021 11:04:36   #
Iron Sight Loc: Utah
 
Cameras only? What about gear?

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Feb 4, 2021 12:01:19   #
rgrenaderphoto Loc: Hollywood, CA
 
jlg1000 wrote:
Sharing this blog about camera market. If it is right on the spot, it spells trouble for amateurs in the near future.

Maybe, this year is the last chance to buy good gear for many...

https://www.eoshd.com/news/camera-sales-volume-in-units-shipped-now-close-to-pre-digital-levels-of-year-1999/


I do not think that 2020, the plague Year, should be used as a forecasting benchmark for anything. And, if this dire prediction was valid, why have Canon, Sony, and Nikon brought out new flagship models of mirrorless cameras?

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Feb 4, 2021 12:04:47   #
mrpentaxk5ii
 
The downward trend can be looked at in a few ways, cameras over the last few years have not changed much and the need to upgrade is not their. Young people don't care to learn photography so much, and are happy taking photos on a phone, they don't think about the photographic experience that a DSLR or Mirrorless camera will give them, and just speaking for my self, I have enough camera bodies that will last me till I die. Pentax K1 MKII, K5 MKII, K3, K3 MKII, KP, KR. Panasonic G4 and G95 and Olympus OMD 1 MKII. Glass is the only thing I would look to buy at this time. Each camera body gives me a different photographic experience that no I Phone can match and I have Bodies that I use for paid events, wildlife / birds from a kayak, landscapes/ seascapes, travel and every day use and so on. 2020 was a bad year with Covid, people out of work and production shut down, I orderer a Pentax 300 mm F-4 DA* lens, it's on back order from Pentax, the price was better than B&H but I will have to wait for it.

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Feb 4, 2021 13:18:49   #
juan_uy Loc: Uruguay
 
The point and shoot market has been complete destroyed by cell phones, that's clear and understandable. Nobody would purchase today a camera for "snapshots".

I would like to see comparisons of the rest of the segment: dSLR + Mirrorless + lenses, etc. and analyze how that market has evolved.
Probably there was a peak/bubble thanks to P&S cameras, but all major companies existed way before that, so they probably continue doing so (after restructuring to adapt to the new reality). And yes, that may mean an increment in prices, but not up to 6k.
Looking at Nikon at least, they released in the last couple of years mirrorless like Z50, Z5, Z6 II and Z7 II, all of them way below the 6k mentioned.

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Feb 4, 2021 15:58:33   #
SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA
 
rgrenaderphoto wrote:
I do not think that 2020, the plague Year, should be used as a forecasting benchmark for anything. And, if this dire prediction was valid, why have Canon, Sony, and Nikon brought out new flagship models of mirrorless cameras?


I agree. The numbers in this blog post were based on product shipped. Almost every manufacturer of anything was affected by supply shortages due to the pandemic. There’s still a lot of stuff on back order.

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Feb 4, 2021 15:58:45   #
jlg1000 Loc: Uruguay / South America
 
rgrenaderphoto wrote:
I... And, if this dire prediction was valid, why have Canon, Sony, and Nikon brought out new flagship models of mirrorless cameras?


This is exactly the point of the blog: those are *expensive* flagships for the pros. The A1 costos $6500, and if you add a reasonable set of lenses and other gear, you'll be north of 30 grands!

If the prediction is correct, and I find it very reasonable that it indeed is, it will be the amateurs who will suffer because less expensive gear will be slowly phased out.

Exhibit A:

The last camera I've bought was my awesome RX100M3 for $650, while the M4 was just released for $750.

Now, the RX100M7 sells for $1300 at amazon. While it is true that the M7 is far more advanced than the M3, this is natural for any piece of technology, be it cameras, cell phones, computers, whatever. This is because of Moore's law which states that for *the same cost* all electronic devices duplicate the amount of components every two years.

So, taking Moore's law in account, the M7 costs the same as TWO M3's being both equivalent.

Exhibit B:

As an Electrical Engineer I'm involved in computer vision and specify for purchase a lot of high end of industrial cameras every year.

In that case, the trend is exactly the opposite: as the years come and go, the prices are sinking at incredible rates. For example a 6MP industrial camera rated for 65ºC did cost about $2500 in 2015... but only $400. And the new cameras can shoot up to about 120 FPS, while the old ones no more than 10 or 12.

Bottom line:

The point is that as sales dwindle, the photographic gear suppliers (Canon, Nikon, Sony, etc.) are rising their prices to keep profit while the market shrinks.

It is not the first time that happens... the last typewriters where getting more and more complex and more and mode expensive at the same time. What is the market for typewriters now in 2021?

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Feb 4, 2021 17:50:22   #
SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA
 
jlg1000 wrote:
This is exactly the point of the blog: those are *expensive* flagships for the pros. The A1 costos $6500, and if you add a reasonable set of lenses and other gear, you'll be north of 30 grands!

If the prediction is correct, and I find it very reasonable that it indeed is, it will be the amateurs who will suffer because less expensive gear will be slowly phased out.

Exhibit A:

The last camera I've bought was my awesome RX100M3 for $650, while the M4 was just released for $750.

Now, the RX100M7 sells for $1300 at amazon. While it is true that the M7 is far more advanced than the M3, this is natural for any piece of technology, be it cameras, cell phones, computers, whatever. This is because of Moore's law which states that for *the same cost* all electronic devices duplicate the amount of components every two years.

So, taking Moore's law in account, the M7 costs the same as TWO M3's being both equivalent.

Exhibit B:

As an Electrical Engineer I'm involved in computer vision and specify for purchase a lot of high end of industrial cameras every year.

In that case, the trend is exactly the opposite: as the years come and go, the prices are sinking at incredible rates. For example a 6MP industrial camera rated for 65ºC did cost about $2500 in 2015... but only $400. And the new cameras can shoot up to about 120 FPS, while the old ones no more than 10 or 12.

Bottom line:

The point is that as sales dwindle, the photographic gear suppliers (Canon, Nikon, Sony, etc.) are rising their prices to keep profit while the market shrinks.

It is not the first time that happens... the last typewriters where getting more and more complex and more and mode expensive at the same time. What is the market for typewriters now in 2021?
This is exactly the point of the blog: those are *... (show quote)


Canon and Nikon already had flagship DSLR’s that sell for $6500. And yes those are for the pros. They have also come out with new mirrorless bodies at much lower price points. Yes they’ve evaluated the market and retooled for a market that consists of pros and hobbyists. The big losses have come from the casual photographer, the P&S market.

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Feb 5, 2021 07:12:56   #
traderjohn Loc: New York City
 
jlg1000 wrote:
Sharing this blog about camera market. If it is right on the spot, it spells trouble for amateurs in the near future.

Maybe, this year is the last chance to buy good gear for many...

https://www.eoshd.com/news/camera-sales-volume-in-units-shipped-now-close-to-pre-digital-levels-of-year-1999/


Young people do not feel the need o lug around a camera, DSLR, or Mirrorless and assorted stuff just to take pictures. No need to. As they move forward with their lives there will be no sites like this one. What do think the average age is on this site?? Their cell phones take pretty good pictures and videos. Their friends and acquaintances they share the pictures with are not going to sit around and nitpick the picture(s). They have moved on.

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Feb 5, 2021 09:12:43   #
machia Loc: NJ
 
No time to compose a photo, the cellphone will take care of everything.
No time to drive, autonomous self driving cars will take care of everything.
Etc etc etc
What are they doing with their time?

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Feb 5, 2021 12:58:06   #
redlegfrog
 
autofocus wrote:
does look pretty grim. Although he briefly touched on it but I think the iPhones, et al, with their ever improving features and quality have taken a major toll on the higher end SLR and mirrorless cameras. The point and shoots were the first to take the hit...will the more advanced ones be next??


If I may add to the argument.
I love my Nikon FM camera. If digital hadn't come along I would still be shooting with it.
With digital it has taken me 3 camera purchase's to finally find my last camera, its a D750. I have no reason to buy any other camera, this one does 99% of what I want.
How many people out there are like me and are happy with their equipment so the only reason they would buy another would be damage or theft?

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Feb 5, 2021 13:59:14   #
TreborLow
 
I have only a Pentax K3, and lenses going back to film days. Two favs are ancient Tamron 90mm macro and the Pentax 300mm f4 DA* (best damn lens of all!!!). If I need a new camera, I will have to deal with what is available at the time. Fewer and fewer non-Pentax lenses are available and lighter weight might become more attractive in a mirrorless. Just got a new smartphone with a 48 megapixel camera, that really is not that great! I wouldn't use it for anything important. Only interested in still photography. Perhaps I am a dinosaur?

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