Do you see what I see?
Jul 7, 2020 20:47:28 #
Wuligal
Loc: Slippery Rock, Pa.
Below is a random selection of figures from today's CDC's Covid19 stats. I used my home state of Pennsylvania as a sample but many other states seem to have the same issue. Is it just me or is there something a bit strange with these figures?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
total cases total deaths active cases
State of Penn. 95,986 6,840 18,709
County
Philadelphia 26,901 1,621 25,280
Montgomery 8,682 815 7,867
Delaware 7,429 704 559
Lancaster 4,623 372 4,251
Lebanon 1,389 45 367
Fayette 149 4 145
Blair 89 1 88
Mercer 159 6 153
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
total cases total deaths active cases
State of Penn. 95,986 6,840 18,709
County
Philadelphia 26,901 1,621 25,280
Montgomery 8,682 815 7,867
Delaware 7,429 704 559
Lancaster 4,623 372 4,251
Lebanon 1,389 45 367
Fayette 149 4 145
Blair 89 1 88
Mercer 159 6 153
Jul 7, 2020 20:58:16 #
Wuligal wrote:
Below is a random selection of figures from today'... (show quote)
someone can't add or someone made two typos - the individual active cases add up to 38,710
Jul 7, 2020 21:27:07 #
robertjerl wrote:
someone can't add or someone made two typos - the individual active cases add up to 38,710
There are many more counties in the state besides those in the sample shown.
I did some additional calculations on the Death Rate of the data shown.
For the whole state it is slightly over 7%. The counties range from slightly over 1% to about 9.5%.
If half of all the people in the United State contract Covid-19 and die at the same rate, that is approximately 12,000,000 people!
Even if the death rate is only 1 or 2 percent, then the total deaths will be in the 2,000,000 range!
Of course the number of people contracting the disease and the percentage who die are not precisely known, these calculations could be much less or more serious.
Jul 7, 2020 21:34:43 #
I see a similar problem with the total cases stated, vs the county by county total cases. The county by county falls well short of the total cases. I don't know how many counties are in Pennsylvania. Smaller states have way more counties, I know, so one answer could be they are simply not listing a lot of counties.
Regardless of that, I want to point out that the number of reported cases are rising steeply in the U.S., especially in certain states like Florida, Arizona, and California.
Regardless of that, I want to point out that the number of reported cases are rising steeply in the U.S., especially in certain states like Florida, Arizona, and California.
Jul 7, 2020 22:18:42 #
kenArchi
Loc: Seal Beach, CA
Are we there yet?
Spanish flu, 1.8 bil population.
100 mill deaths
Covi virus, 5.5 billion population.
Spanish flu, 1.8 bil population.
100 mill deaths
Covi virus, 5.5 billion population.
Jul 7, 2020 22:24:38 #
Wuligal
Loc: Slippery Rock, Pa.
Here is my point:
If I tally the "active cases" for all the counties in Pennsylvania the total is 70,437.
If I accept the figure presented by the CDC for "active cases" the total is 18,709.
That is a difference of 51,533 and both figures cannot be right .
If you go to the site I mentioned in my first post you will see that the same issue holds for every state.
If I tally the "active cases" for all the counties in Pennsylvania the total is 70,437.
If I accept the figure presented by the CDC for "active cases" the total is 18,709.
That is a difference of 51,533 and both figures cannot be right .
If you go to the site I mentioned in my first post you will see that the same issue holds for every state.
Jul 7, 2020 22:53:51 #
kenArchi wrote:
Are we there yet?
Spanish flu, 1.8 bil population.
100 mill deaths
Covi virus, 5.5 billion population.
Spanish flu, 1.8 bil population.
100 mill deaths
Covi virus, 5.5 billion population.
About 8 billion population now.
Jul 7, 2020 22:58:54 #
Wuligal wrote:
Below is a random selection of figures from today'... (show quote)
In some counties, almost none have recovered while in others almost all have recovered. See Philadelphia and Delaware counties. Hmmm.... In reality, there are far more cases that should be known if testing was complete. Testing doesn't change the number of dead. Better to look at the number of dead per 100,000 population in an area.
Jul 7, 2020 23:21:31 #
TreborLow wrote:
There are many more counties in the state besides ... (show quote)
I ignored that they couldn't count counties either and concentrated on just what was posted. Maybe all those other counties seceded from the state while the news media wasn't looking?
Jul 8, 2020 07:41:09 #
Did we finally get Philadelphia out of the state?
Otherwise, how can there be more cases in Philadelphia than the whole state?
Otherwise, how can there be more cases in Philadelphia than the whole state?
Jul 8, 2020 07:56:04 #
whfowle
Loc: Tampa first, now Albuquerque
I've watched the stats being reported and I have some questions too. In the charts I have seen, they record total cases which I think means the number of positive test results. If I am to believe that all positive test results end up in a hospital for recovery, then why does the number of recoveries plus the number of deaths not equal the total number of positive test results? The difference is highly significant. As an example, I live in New Mexico. The report update for 6 July shows 13,727 confirmed cases, 5,986 recovered, but only 519 total deaths. So why isn't the recovered 13,208. Am I to believe 7,222 confirmed positive patients escaped the hospital without being registered as recovered?
Jul 8, 2020 08:20:19 #
Wuligal
Loc: Slippery Rock, Pa.
Doc Barry wrote:
In some counties, almost none have recovered while in others almost all have recovered. See Philadelphia and Delaware counties. Hmmm.... In reality, there are far more cases that should be known if testing was complete. Testing doesn't change the number of dead. Better to look at the number of dead per 100,000 population in an area.
It might appear that there are some counties that have NO recoveries but (by the CDC's own calculation) that's not true. There is a discrepancy of 50,361 "active cases" and that is in just one state alone.
Think of it this way - suppose you found a $50,361.00 mistake in your checking account. Would you change banks?
Jul 8, 2020 09:08:42 #
Wuligal
Loc: Slippery Rock, Pa.
edwdickinson wrote:
Did we finally get Philadelphia out of the state?
Otherwise, how can there be more cases in Philadelphia than the whole state?
Otherwise, how can there be more cases in Philadelphia than the whole state?
.....all of which takes me to the next questions. Why wasn't this issue noticed sooner? Why hasn't someone spoken aloud about it? Which set of figures does the CDC use in public announcements? How many of us have actually recovered from this virus? They are sure quick with the bad news, (the death count) why are we not entitled to an accurate count of the good news (the recoveries)?
Jul 8, 2020 10:02:48 #
whfowle wrote:
I've watched the stats being reported and I have s... (show quote)
Maybe the 7,222 are pending. Waiting to be released from hospital or waiting to die.
Jul 8, 2020 10:11:05 #
Could be total tested, death/Hospitalizes and covid19 positive
Like for State of Penn: 95,986 - total tested, 6,840.00 - death/hospitalized and 18,709 - tested positive
Like for State of Penn: 95,986 - total tested, 6,840.00 - death/hospitalized and 18,709 - tested positive
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