dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho

Sent to me by a friend:

Something to ponder.

Dennis


WELCOME TO TOMORROW


THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MOST OR ALL OF THE FOLLOWING WILL BECOME REALITY IN THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS. MANY OF US WON’T SEE THE CHANGES, BUT OUR KIDS AND GRAN - KIDS PROBABLY WILL.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW......!

1- The basic auto repair shops will disappear. Read on to know why.

2- A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.

3- Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots

4- Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

5- Gas pumps will go away.

6- Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started in the developed world.

7- Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build only electric cars.

8-Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC! The middle-east is in trouble

9- Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

10- A baby of today will see personal cars only in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

11- In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

12- What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't see it coming.

13- Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

14- Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.

15- It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

16- Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

17- Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

18- UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world! Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

19- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

20- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

21- In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future , (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.

22- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, it’s 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

23- Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

24- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car any ’more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.

25- You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

26- This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green parks.

27- About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

28- Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

29- Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

30- Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla and they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

31- Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

32- Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful affordable locations.

33- Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

34- Cities will have much cleaner air as well.

35- Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

36- Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

37- Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

38- Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – some of it actually arrived a few years ago.

And I'm still trying to figure out how to use my cell phone!!

Doddy Loc: Barnard Castle-England

Sounds about right!

NMGal Loc: NE NM

Scary!

DirtFarmer Loc: Escaped from the NYC area, back to MA

This has been around for a couple years now.


They're already in trouble. Cars are operated by computers now, and need software engineers to troubleshoot problems.
However, the car still depends on mechanics for wheels/bearings, tie rods, tires/balancing, grease on moving parts, etc....



Electric motors still need lubrication and cooling, but they are certainly simpler than internal combustion engines. The limitation to electric cars is the energy storage and recharge. Right now you can load 500 miles of gasoline into a car in 3-4 minutes. How long does it take to charge a car battery to 500 miles (assuming you can get an electric car with that range).



Not so fast! Transportation isn't the only thing that oil is used for. Plastics. Fertilizer. Building materials. There's a large list.



In cities, maybe. Rural areas are a long way away from having viable public transportation. Even Uber/Lyft don't operate everywhere.



This year it's a lot easier to see a lot of companies and industries going out of business.



The corollary is that photographs will not last for centuries any more.



Practical artificial intelligence is a long way off. Look at what passes for AI now. It's really limited and that's partly because it's built by humans, who can't seem to consider every eventuality. Real AI will be designed by AI.



Certainly computers have transformed business. But the real downside is robotics. Eventually there will be no more jobs. You think current proposals for universal basic income are radical? Just wait until robots really take over. That won't happen until the robots repair the robots when they break.



I don't worry that I will be around to see real AI.



As I age, I look forward to self-driving cars. However, I recently went to an event a 3 hour drive away. I drove. When the event was over, I drove home. During the event, it had started to snow. The return trip took 4 hours instead of 3. During 2 of those driving hours, I saw no lane markers. They were obscured by the snow. And that was all on interstates. Before self-driving cars be viable, the roads will have to be rebuilt with some way to tell the car where it is in the lane. GPS is not accurate enough at present. And rebuilding roads is going to take a while because there's no funding. And by the way, the roads are surfaced with oil derivatives, so drilling for oil will not stop.

How are we going to pay for our ride? If AI has taken away our jobs. Guaranteed basic income? That's a function of government, and where does the government get its money if we don't pay income tax because we have no income?



People are working remotely now during the pandemic. That will not go away.



Much of the noise in the city comes from horns, operated by frustrated drivers. Take away the human drivers. Much quieter.



It will have to be cheap because we won't have an income.



Solar energy is currently heavily subsidized. It will need more development, and that will happen, but it will take a while.



There's an old joke about the automatic diagnosis machine which I won't go into here, but it involved "tennis elbow".
You will have to have kids (or grandkids) in order to learn how to use your cell phone.

dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho

WOW!!! I had no idea anyone would really take each one of these seriously. Way too much trouble for me to have done so. Congratulations on fine work. Someone else can check you for accuracy. I just am not that interested. These changes will most likely come gradually and so slow I won't notice. Most of us won't.

Dennis

DirtFarmer Loc: Escaped from the NYC area, back to MA

Some of these things are going to present serious problems. However, the time scale is up in the air at this point. Some of these things will happen soon and some won't.

Longshadow Loc: Audubon, PA, United States

dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho

Exactly as progress has taken us since the world began. Everything has changed while in reality nothing has changed. We continue to progress as humankind.

Thanks for posting. Much appreciated.

Dennis

chrissybabe Loc: New Zealand

39. We will all be having to learn Mandarin if things go a certain way now.

cdayton

同意

Manglesphoto Loc: 70 miles south of St.Louis

And at then they will bow to the Grand Robot like sheep, I'm glad I won't see it.

LVP Loc: Seekonk, MA

The future,IMHO, doesn't end with plug in vehicles. We're heading in the right direction. Once infrastructure is established, fuel cell technology will be a more effective means of motivation. Current companies could adapt their manufacturing and distribution capabilities, perhaps resulting in less economic turmoil and bankruptcy.

Sirsnapalot Loc: Hammond, Louisiana

Most of the technology is here in theory only, the practicality not so much!

DirtFarmer Loc: Escaped from the NYC area, back to MA

对

chrissybabe Loc: New Zealand

What do either of those chinese characters mean ?