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Camera market has collapsed 84% since 2010
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Feb 12, 2019 15:26:32   #
ggab (a regular here)
 
I just finished reading an article in "Digital Camera World".

https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/news/camera-market-has-collapsed-84-since-2010?utm_source=Selligent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1208&utm_content=12+February+2019+DCW+Newsletter+&utm_term=

The gist of the article is the decline of camera sales worldwide. While they distinguish between DSLR's and mirrorless (I presume, although they don't say it, they mean removable lens mirrorless cameras). They do not dig down into the different types of cameras and their decline. The message is that cell phones have taken market share away from digital cameras.

I would be interested in knowing which segment of "digital cameras" has been hit the hardest. ie, point and shoot, bridge, removable lens mirrorless, dslr? There is a hint that it is the "point and shoot" and "bridge cameras". They indicate "The website's yearly report contains more sobering statistics. There was a 24% decrease in cameras shipped from 2017 to 2018, with a 7% drop in shipped lenses". They went on to state that there was a 12% drop in DSLR sales with only a 2% increase in mirrorless. I read that to be 14% drop in cameras with attached lenses vs 10% drop in removable lens cameras. Again, assuming that they mean removable lense mirrorless cameras and 2% moved from DSLR to removable lens Mirrorless.

I also believe they misdiagnosed the future of digital. They indicate " In short, don't expect new gear to get any cheaper – and true innovation, if it can still be afforded, may be in short supply". I believe just the opposite. Companies like Nikon, Canon etc. are not going to let their core products wither away. I believe you find more innovation in the cameras. The ability to do things that Cell Phones can't. They need to differentiate themselves from the cell phones. I believe we are seeing the end of the point and shoot.

I just found the link to the chart shown in the article that defines the different segments:

https://lensvid.com/gear/technology/what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2018/



My $0.02 worth.
What do you think?

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Feb 12, 2019 15:43:14   #
CHG_CANON (a regular here)
 
Interchangeable lens cameras (mirrored or mirrorless) are a luxury item. Consult any of the now annual award lists of cellphone (mobile) photography for confirmation. When a cellphone (camera) is free with a serviceplan and high-end smart phones (cameras) run to $1000, how can any single-function camera compete, particularly the bridge / compact / non-interchangeable models?

The coffee is fully brewed. Many of the innovations of the top-line models at the $6000 price range eventually filter down to even the entry level models. But, if there's no market for an entry level DSLR that costs $500 and takes pictures no better than a cell phone in the novice's hands, the companies cannot / will not continue to make them.

There won't be a revival. The innovations will continue to enter at the high-end. Do you think the 100MP sensor will first be deployed in the $500 entry-level or the $3000 advanced-prosumer products, if not at some still higher price point representing the boutique nature of this pixel resolution? What possible camera-only innovation could possibly replace or forestall the ubiquity and utility of a cellphone?

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Feb 12, 2019 15:49:48   #
RV
 
No doubt the cell phone camera technology is eating away at the DSLR and Mirrorless Market. However, I do think this report is a little deceptive. Everyone pretty much has a cell phone which just happens to have a camera built in. The sheer number of cell phones sold around the world vs. real camera's projects a false comparison. Although newer cell phones do provide some nice images, it will be a long time before they can duplicate the advantages of having a real camera. A person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone.

IMHO

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Feb 12, 2019 15:59:59   #
Black Elk Peak
 
RV wrote:
No doubt the cell phone camera technology is eating away at the DSLR and Mirrorless Market. However, I do think this report is a little deceptive. Everyone pretty much has a cell phone which just happens to have a camera built in. The sheer number of cell phones sold around the world vs. real camera's projects a false comparison. Although newer cell phones do provide some nice images, it will be a long time before they can duplicate the advantages of having a real camera. A person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone.

IMHO
No doubt the cell phone camera technology is eatin... (show quote)


"A person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone."

I completely agree. I would never take just a cell phone to something like the Grand Canyon. Cell phones are for taking pictures of the Grandkids. Cameras are for places like the Grand Canyon.

IMHO
Vaughan K.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:00:03   #
PixelStan77 (a regular here)
 
RV wrote:
No doubt the cell phone camera technology is eating away at the DSLR and Mirrorless Market. However, I do think this report is a little deceptive. Everyone pretty much has a cell phone which just happens to have a camera built in. The sheer number of cell phones sold around the world vs. real camera's projects a false comparison. Although newer cell phones do provide some nice images, it will be a long time before they can duplicate the advantages of having a real camera. A person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone.

IMHO
No doubt the cell phone camera technology is eatin... (show quote)
RV I agree with your conclusion that a person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:05:31   #
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Feb 12, 2019 16:08:09   #
WestTnGuy
 
While my iPhone 7 does make decent pictures, the only time I have used it in shear and a half is to take pictures of my banged up legs when I was in the hospital. While phones will replace the simple point and shoot cameras I just don’t think they will seriously compete with the true DSLR or mirror less.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:11:22   #
CHG_CANON (a regular here)
 
PixelStan77 wrote:
RV I agree with your conclusion that a person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone.


LOL ...

The MPA (Mobile Photography Awards) are "images shot and edited on any mobile phone or tablet including iPhones, iPads, Android phones and tablets, Windows Phones, and the iPod touch are eligible for entry." (see the entry criteria FAQs for this detail and more)

Scroll any of the 2018 winners, such as this link to the macro winners: https://mobilephotoawards.com/macro-details-winners-8th-annual-mpa/

Of course, these are not SOOC (where 'c' is a cell phone or any form of 'camera'), but 'serious' photography is not dependent nor limited to interchangeable lens camera as the tool ...

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Feb 12, 2019 16:13:54   #
BebuLamar (a regular here)
 
When people stopped buying film, film were on sales for a while and then the supply run out and few companies made them so the price went up. If what the OP said is true then we should start seeing cameras on sales now and we can buy them cheap because if later only Leica is in the market we won't be able to afford cameras.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:15:54   #
rmorrison1116 (a regular here)
 
Black Elk Peak wrote:
"A person who is serious about photography will always buy a real camera in addition to a cell phone."

I completely agree. I would never take just a cell phone to something like the Grand Canyon. Cell phones are for taking pictures of the Grandkids. Cameras are for places like the Grand Canyon.

IMHO
Vaughan K.


Cell phone cameras are real cameras. They are not dedicated cameras and may not posses features that dedicated cameras may, but they are indeed, real cameras, with a built in wireless telephone.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:36:16   #
LFingar (a regular here)
 
No surprise that cellphones have completely changed the camera market. Casual photographers, as well as huge numbers of people who never took a photo before in their life, now realize that all they need is their cellphone. No need to buy an actual camera. No need to download to a computer, or phone, or other device to upload to the internet. The phone does it all and for the vast majority of people it gives them all they want or need as far as IQ and viewing ability. You can now be an internet sensation with nothing more then a smartphone. Apparently, that is of supreme importance to a whole bunch of people. Why lug around a Bowie knife when a Swiss Army knife will do everything you want? The smartphone is the Swiss Army knife of modern society.
As far as DSLR's, I will guarantee you that they are on their way out, to be replaced by full frame and APS-C mirrorless. Canon is certainly headed in that direction. Their EOS R is not the start of a line running parallel to the DSLR, it is the start of a replacement for the DSLR. Doubt me? Talk to me about it in five years.
Prosumer and professional cameras will be around for a long time, but the market and the cameras will change. There is no stopping it.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:46:47   #
graybeard
 
CHG_CANON wrote:
Interchangeable lens cameras (mirrored or mirrorless) are a luxury item. Consult any of the now annual award lists of cellphone (mobile) photography for confirmation. When a cellphone (camera) is free with a serviceplan and high-end smart phones (cameras) run to $1000, how can any single-function camera compete, particularly the bridge / compact / non-interchangeable models?

The coffee is fully brewed. Many of the innovations of the top-line models at the $6000 price range eventually filter down to even the entry level models. But, if there's no market for an entry level DSLR that costs $500 and takes pictures no better than a cell phone in the novice's hands, the companies cannot / will not continue to make them.

There won't be a revival. The innovations will continue to enter at the high-end. Do you think the 100MP sensor will first be deployed in the $500 entry-level or the $3000 advanced-prosumer products, if not at some still higher price point representing the boutique nature of this pixel resolution? What possible camera-only innovation could possibly replace or forestall the ubiquity and utility of a cellphone?
Interchangeable lens cameras (mirrored or mirrorle... (show quote)


You are probably right about the coming end of low priced simple cameras. I also think the DSLR is likely going to be diminished, altho probably not eliminated. Phone cameras are so limited, but they do fullfill many peoples needs.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:56:19   #
CHG_CANON (a regular here)
 
graybeard wrote:
You are probably right about the coming end of low priced simple cameras. I also think the DSLR is likely going to be diminished, altho probably not eliminated. Phone cameras are so limited, but they do fullfill many peoples needs.


Follow the link in my post above, how limited to mobile devices seem today in Feb 2019? Will today's limits apply in 2020 and onwards as the drive for better and better and smaller and smaller continues to advance the capabilities of the ubiquitous phone?

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Feb 12, 2019 17:12:59   #
LFingar (a regular here)
 
CHG_CANON wrote:
Follow the link in my post above, how limited to mobile devices seem today in Feb 2019? Will today's limits apply in 2020 and onwards as the drive for better and better and smaller and smaller continues to advance the capabilities of the ubiquitous phone?


Today's cell phone cameras are extremely capable. They can do things unheard of 10 yrs ago, or even 5 yrs ago. That is the nature of technology. A whole lot of people who once bought point-and-shoots, bridge cameras, and entry level DSLR's have learned they don't need to spend that money for the results they want. That narrows the market a whole lot and we are seeing the results of that. I believe that higher end cameras will be with us for a long time, but I also believe that the manufacturers will be spending less and less on developing new models.

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Feb 12, 2019 17:22:12   #
graybeard
 
You seem knowledgeable about Canon products, and I wanted to ask you a question but find I am on your ignore list. Perhaps for some past transgression I don't recall. I had wanted advice on a suitable Canon or 3rd party macro lens.

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