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Cold Weather and Electric Cars, Part 2
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Feb 12, 2019 13:02:53   #
davefales Loc: Virginia
 
TriX wrote:
Please share with us what claim you’re referring to, and the facts surrounding it ...


There are several articles you might read (after a search on "john cook 97% claim". ) Two among others are not from "right wing" sites:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2016/12/14/fact-checking-the-97-consensus-on-anthropogenic-climate-change/#34d6e6fb1157

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming

Key factors include 1. a lot of scientists did not register an opinion and 2. many responses agreed there was warming but could not agree there is hard evidence that CO2 is the reason.

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Feb 12, 2019 13:08:09   #
AlexG Loc: Caldwell, NJ
 
krashdragon said it all very well. There is no free lunch. How are we going to produce all of this additional electricity? Or the batteries and other technology to deliver it to us? Are wind, wave and solar power up to that task?

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Feb 12, 2019 14:50:43   #
Mr Quark
 
Modeling is not science; All your lovely organizations plus lots others are loaded with people on the dole; "pay me and I'll say anything". Its strange that with all your knowledge you haven't discovered the purpose of the "vast conspiracy" Follow the money and get off the consensus train. Did you ever wonder why a great gas like CO2 takes the blame for so much "warming?"; when without it the planet would be dead and so would you. WE need it and its not hard to see its extremely valuable benefits but how often does the news mention this. Admit you've been sucked into a. conspiracy and its loaded with false claims; hope you enjoy the trip.

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Feb 12, 2019 15:17:19   #
chrisscholbe Loc: Kansas City, MO
 
Mr Quark wrote:
Modeling is not science; All your lovely organizations plus lots others are loaded with people on the dole; "pay me and I'll say anything". Its strange that with all your knowledge you haven't discovered the purpose of the "vast conspiracy" Follow the money and get off the consensus train. Did you ever wonder why a great gas like CO2 takes the blame for so much "warming?"; when without it the planet would be dead and so would you. WE need it and its not hard to see its extremely valuable benefits but how often does the news mention this. Admit you've been sucked into a. conspiracy and its loaded with false claims; hope you enjoy the trip.
Modeling is not science; All your lovely organizat... (show quote)

Your example using C02 isn't as persuasive as you think it it.

Water is necessary for life, but, too much could drown you.

CO is part of they cycle of providing us with air to breath, but, too much can kill you.

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Feb 12, 2019 15:26:57   #
pendennis
 
TriX wrote:
Just because third world / poorer countries do not share our ideals, does not mean we, as a country, should not do our part. The same logic would argue that since we can’t stop communism, female genital mutilation, deforestation, ritual murder, stoning and famine (just to name a few ills), we should allow the same? Europe and many other countries do realize the world threat that faces us and have committed to do their part, and the fact that we are pulling out of the climate control accords is appalling.

There is no doubt that our long-term weather is influenced by factors beyond our control, BUT the best weather modeling we can currently conduct indicates we are contributing to the problem, so why not do our best to minimize that contribution, especially since the move to less polluting forms of energy will become a necessity eventually as fossil fuels are exhausted.

Personally, I have spent much of my computer career working with the agencies acquiring the data and analyzing it, and having seen organizations such as NOAA, NCAR, NASA, NCDC, JHU-APL and the various supercomputing sites supporting the modeling, I can tell you from first hand experience and talking with literally many hundreds of scientists in the community, that the data is not being falsified. As I suggested to a previous poster, go examine the data for yourself - it is freely available to anyone with a computer - just start with EOS (earth observation system), and see the visual and climatic data for yourself. Take a look at the satellite views of the arctic over the last 10-20 years and then decide if you think the data is being falsified. Finally ask yourself what would be the purpose of this vast “conspiracy”? Are all these tens of thousands of scientists from all over the world who have spent their lives studying this data wrong? Are they all in-league to deceive us, and to what purpose?

Finally, if you’ve lived in the same area for decades, what do you observe in your own backyard? Here in NC, the climate is slowly becoming warmer and more variable - even our local climate zone for the hardiness of plants has changed in my lifetime. Can you deny what you see with your own eyes? We have owned a condo on the NC coast for about 40 years. Until a few years ago, we had never seen our low lying parking areas flood. Now they do it regularly, and pumps have been installed to control it (and no, there has been no construction or topography changes that would affect it). I sold the condo last year, because when it becomes uninsurable, it will be impossible to borrow money to purchase it, and it will be worthless. I may be a few years too soon, but I can see the trend.
Just because third world / poorer countries do not... (show quote)


No matter what we do as a country, it will not affect the climate of the world. We occupy too little of the surface area of the earth, only around 4%. And the literal scare about carbon dioxide is a complete sham, as well as methane gas. Carbon dioxide makes up only .04% of the atmosphere, and methane a mere .00017%. Carbon dioxide only becomes toxic at levels above 5%, 125 times current levels. In fact, growing seasons could be enhanced, increasing food production, helping eliminate starvation in poor countries.

One of the first things 3rd World countries need to do, is to pave roads, and that requires fossil fuels. Heating will have to be done by either coal, or some other fossil fuel. The massive cost of infrastructure required to create green energy is completely prohibitive, even with foreign aid.

Data have been fabricated, or have you forgotten about the University of East Anglia scandal?

Have worked in IT for a long time, there are no super computers, not even interconnected which can be trusted to come up with accurate climate models. All predictive models are based on historical events. They use "hindcasting" to predict the future. That works only if wind models, the Jet Stream, and ocean tides cooperate.

I've lived in Southeast Michigan for nearly forty years, and the winter predictions are about as accurate as a blind man throwing darts at a dot on a wall from 100 feet. We live far enough north that the Jet Stream is always a factor in forecasting weather. It can move 50 miles in any direction and we may or may not get snow, rain, clear, or clouds.

Before that I lived in Kentucky, where winters usually have minimal amounts of snow, and huge snowstorms may dump as much as 6" on the ground. However, I've seen snow falls as great as 20"+ for two of three winters, and temperatures drop to as much as -20F.

If you live near the Atlantic Ocean, you can look to the Sahara Desert as the genesis for hurricanes and other weather affecting Atlantic coast America and the Caribbean.

Again, I'm not denying that the climate changes. However, we just haven't been around long enough to observe just how.

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Feb 12, 2019 16:19:59   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
Mr Quark wrote:
Modeling is not science; All your lovely organizations plus lots others are loaded with people on the dole; "pay me and I'll say anything". Its strange that with all your knowledge you haven't discovered the purpose of the "vast conspiracy" Follow the money and get off the consensus train. Did you ever wonder why a great gas like CO2 takes the blame for so much "warming?"; when without it the planet would be dead and so would you. WE need it and its not hard to see its extremely valuable benefits but how often does the news mention this. Admit you've been sucked into a. conspiracy and its loaded with false claims; hope you enjoy the trip.
Modeling is not science; All your lovely organizat... (show quote)


So the majority of scientists all over the world are in a vast conspiracy? And where is the profit for the conspiracy in all this? Really?

If that is the nature of your thinking, somehow I don’t think this conversation is going to be productive, but it’s your opinion and you’re entitled to it.

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Feb 12, 2019 17:00:57   #
davefales Loc: Virginia
 
Anyone ever see a total of government funding (taxpayer dollars) spent on climate research?

Googling has not led me to a good answer yet.

Reply
 
 
Feb 12, 2019 17:10:57   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
Using Q
pendennis wrote:
No matter what we do as a country, it will not affect the climate of the world. We occupy too little of the surface area of the earth, only around 4%. And the literal scare about carbon dioxide is a complete sham, as well as methane gas. Carbon dioxide makes up only .04% of the atmosphere, and methane a mere .00017%. Carbon dioxide only becomes toxic at levels above 5%, 125 times current levels. In fact, growing seasons could be enhanced, increasing food production, helping eliminate starvation in poor countries.

One of the first things 3rd World countries need to do, is to pave roads, and that requires fossil fuels. Heating will have to be done by either coal, or some other fossil fuel. The massive cost of infrastructure required to create green energy is completely prohibitive, even with foreign aid.

Data have been fabricated, or have you forgotten about the University of East Anglia scandal?

Have worked in IT for a long time, there are no super computers, not even interconnected which can be trusted to come up with accurate climate models. All predictive models are based on historical events. They use "hindcasting" to predict the future. That works only if wind models, the Jet Stream, and ocean tides cooperate.

I've lived in Southeast Michigan for nearly forty years, and the winter predictions are about as accurate as a blind man throwing darts at a dot on a wall from 100 feet. We live far enough north that the Jet Stream is always a factor in forecasting weather. It can move 50 miles in any direction and we may or may not get snow, rain, clear, or clouds.

Before that I lived in Kentucky, where winters usually have minimal amounts of snow, and huge snowstorms may dump as much as 6" on the ground. However, I've seen snow falls as great as 20"+ for two of three winters, and temperatures drop to as much as -20F.

If you live near the Atlantic Ocean, you can look to the Sahara Desert as the genesis for hurricanes and other weather affecting Atlantic coast America and the Caribbean.

Again, I'm not denying that the climate changes. However, we just haven't been around long enough to observe just how.
No matter what we do as a country, it will not aff... (show quote)


I think you know that the percentage of CO2 in the air vs toxicity to human life or the increase in plant production is not the point of this discussion. The point is the effect on global temperatures and the effect of ice melt on the rise in sea levels, especially on coastal cities. There are dozens of sources to become better informed about the mechanism, but here’s a start from the National Academy of Sciences, Medicine and engineering: http://needtoknow.nas.edu/energy/energy-costs/environmental/

Now of course, it’s easy to dismiss all those scientists, who have spent their entire lives studying the earth and climate as either mistaken or involved in a global conspiracy, and one could also dismiss doctors and the science of medicine in favor of witch doctors and Fox News for medical treatment when you’re having a heart attack. I am just not willing to dismiss the data and the majority of scientists that tell us we are flirting with disaster.

Regarding weather forecasting, I have spent decades designing, selling and implementing supercomputers all over the eastern US, including those at Oak Ridge (currently hosting the fastest computer in the world at >200 Pflops) and the fastest computer for open science in the US at Argonne National Labs. I helped architect the NOAA CLASS system by which weather data from our polar orbiters and geosynchronous birds is acquired and disseminated. I have spent literally thousands of hours at these facilities looking at the data streams coming directly from the earth observing satellites and talking with the scientists who are trying to correctly model our weather system, and I’ll tell you this. The earth’s weather is a very complex system, and we don’t know everything there is to know about it, but we’re throwing the best data and computer resources we have at it. The results may not be perfect (although our local forecast is spot on most of the time), but I trust it and those well educated and dedicated scientists 1000% more than the conspiracy theorists and uninformed or poorly informed opinions that I see (to my dismay) repeated here.

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Feb 12, 2019 17:26:09   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
davefales wrote:
Anyone ever see a total of government funding (taxpayer dollars) spent on climate research?

Googling has not led me to a good answer yet.


I think that is going to be difficult to arrive at. In terms of computing resources alone, I would start with Googling “supercomputers dedicated to climate modeling” and of course the “HPC top 500 list” of the top 500 supercomputers in the world. You can spend days following the links, but I think you may find the top 500 list interesting. It won’t tell you what the machines cost, but one fact will become (sadly) obvious: the fastest machines in the world are used for modeling nuclear weapons, followed by weather, high energy physics, medicine/drugs, economics, business analytics, etc...

https://www.top500.org/list/2018/06/

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Feb 12, 2019 22:26:31   #
chazz4623 Loc: Prairieville, La
 

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Feb 12, 2019 23:52:00   #
rlv567 Loc: Baguio City, Philippines
 
TriX wrote:
I think that is going to be difficult to arrive at. In terms of computing resources alone, I would start with Googling “supercomputers dedicated to climate modeling” and of course the “HPC top 500 list” of the top 500 supercomputers in the world. You can spend days following the links, but I think you may find the top 500 list interesting. It won’t tell you what the machines cost, but one fact will become (sadly) obvious: the fastest machines in the world are used for modeling nuclear weapons, followed by weather, high energy physics, medicine/drugs, economics, business analytics, etc...

https://www.top500.org/list/2018/06/
I think that is going to be difficult to arrive at... (show quote)


Computers are great at that which they are tasked to do; the unfortunate fact is that the parameters guiding their product are input by humans who at least frequently are agenda driven, thus in large part determining the eventual outcome!!! (It seems that somewhere I've heard "garbage in, garbage out!!!)

Loren - Baguio City

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Feb 13, 2019 00:12:33   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
rlv567 wrote:
Computers are great at that which they are tasked to do; the unfortunate fact is that the parameters guiding their product are input by humans who at least frequently are agenda driven, thus in large part determining the eventual outcome!!! (It seems that somewhere I've heard "garbage in, garbage out!!!)

Loren - Baguio City


GIGO is a well known acronym, but I would be surprised if the researchers are inputting fake weather data since the data is derived from historical records, sensors (such as bouys and weather balloons) and satellite data and is peer reviewed. Just too many people involved to falsify the data even if you can imagine some far-fetched reason they might want to. Do you know any heads of supercomputing facilities or meteroilogical scientists personally? I’ve met many dozens, perhaps hundreds, and I find the idea that they would ALL falsify data as part of some grand cnspiracy or coordinated agenda difficult to believe. It seems to me much more likely that those proposing such an absurd explanation are badly informed. Which explanation do YOU think is more plausible?

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Feb 13, 2019 00:36:07   #
rlv567 Loc: Baguio City, Philippines
 
TriX wrote:
GIGO is a well known acronym, but I would be surprised if the researchers are inputting fake weather data since the data is derived from historical records, sensors (such as bouys and weather balloons) and satellite data and is peer reviewed. Just too many people involved to falsify the data even if you can imagine some far-fetched reason they might want to. Do you know any heads of supercomputing facilities or meteroilogical scientists personally? I’ve met many dozens, perhaps hundreds, and I find the idea that they would ALL falsify data as part of some grand cnspiracy or coordinated agenda difficult to believe. It seems to me much more likely that those proposing such an absurd explanation are badly informed. Which explanation do YOU think is more plausible?
GIGO is a well known acronym, but I would be surpr... (show quote)


The "absurd explanation" is not that the date input is fake, but that the choice of data input and how it is handled in the assembly and computational aspects (as determined by a few possibly agenda driven humans) directly controls the eventual output, which preposterously is called "pure science"!!! That which is undisputed science fact one year is just as indisputably considered bogus another!!! Again, garbage in, garbage out.

Loren - Baguio City

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Feb 13, 2019 03:18:28   #
Harry0 Loc: Gardena, Cal
 
krashdragon wrote:
Just wondering, if all these people thinking electric cars are so great, ever learn where and how the chemicals that make the batteries come from? Or the electricity..... Sometimes... not so green...

Well ... that's not quite the point. There's nothing really green about either.
You have the issue with the fuel. Frackers, offshore wells, buried waste, and polluted ground and groundwater just getting the oil out. Trains, trucks and pipelines transporting it. Refineries fabricating it. Trains, trucks and pipelines redistributing it. Gas stations disbursing it. Smog stations and tuneup shops. All that infrastructure- goes away.
There's another gallon of oil every 5,000 miles. Spark plugs, oil and air filters, antifreeze, hoses and belts, catalytic converters, and batteries. All these expendable parts need to be purchased and replaced regularly, and hardly ever recycled. All that infrastructure- goes away. All those per gallon taxes go away, and will need to be replaced.
We'll have to be diligent to keep the government from adding boondoggling infrastructure, and not reward the "too rich to fail, too rich to jail" folk too heavily.
Instead, we'll have the Grid. The wires are already there. I won't have to wait in line at my house outlet. I can charge at non peak hours. A couple solar panels and a wind turbine charging up a large (mini Grid) power wall can ensure that my car- and my house- never run out, never go dark. Feed the Grid! A couple more solar panels to help Grid out during peak hours. Ocean turbines, wind farms hydro plants- all make sure Grid doesn't go hungry. I can go anywhere, and find a teat from Grid.
And all those right wing jihadists yelling "Death to Satan!" waay over there can keep their oil.

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Feb 13, 2019 04:02:59   #
Harry0 Loc: Gardena, Cal
 
rlv567 wrote:
Computers are great at that which they are tasked to do; the unfortunate fact is that the parameters guiding their product are input by humans who at least frequently are agenda driven, thus in large part determining the eventual outcome!!! (It seems that somewhere I've heard "garbage in, garbage out!!!) Loren - Baguio City

We don't need no stinkin computers!
We already have hundreds of years of pencils and papers keeping track at what's outside. Get a piece of graph paper and a pile of dots. On this day, this time, the temperature was .. dot. You'll see a cloudy ball of dots going from lower left to upper right.
Here in Socal we get (usually) large puffs of warm air coming up the coastline from the equator. SanFran, Porkland, Seattle and Alaska have been reporting warmer weather for decades. With the trade winds blowing East, this is pushing the polar vortex off center, Eastwards, then down. You guys in the Flyover and Rightwinger states- get used to it, and get over it.
The same Fearless Leaders telling you there is no such thing as "Climate Change" (or Globical Warmening, if you a Texican) have been planning on ways to make a buck or two on it. For decades. Construction companies gearing up to make raised foundations. Remember Galveston? NYC officials and planners deciding how to deal with large buildings that will lose the use of their bottom floor. Or two. Major companies eagerly awaiting the opening of the Northwest Passage.
And that little extra CO2 won't bother you. It's been increasing slowly, and we've acclimated to it. What it WILL do is increase plant growth, Bigger better faster. Well, notso much better. The increased growth will not be matched by nutrient uptake. You'll have more plant, but you'll need to eat more of it.

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