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Some Interesting Predictions
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Nov 13, 2018 09:43:21   #
rps
 
What about batteries? They have to become smaller, lighter, longer lasting, more quickly chargeable and, most important, more easily and safely disposed of or recycled.

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Nov 13, 2018 09:50:32   #
olemikey (a regular here)
 
Our future is changing faster than the speed of life...……………….

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Nov 13, 2018 10:25:28   #
JBruce
 
Quote--Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

I've read this before; nice idea, but have never seen the answer as to how on-board electric storage will power long distance airplanes, or truck and rail freight. Electric locomotives from the early to mid 20th century were made obsolete as being too expensive, and high maintenance.

John

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Nov 13, 2018 10:36:22   #
LVP
 
Absolutely a fascinating rate of change we are experiencing.
IMHO, electric vehicles will be the norm sooner than expected.
The battery issues however, will eventually direct us to using hydrogen fuel cells.
Infrastructure for hydrogen distribution should be a top priority.

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Nov 13, 2018 11:19:45   #
viscountdriver
 
What you didn't say was there will be massive unemployment because computers will take over many tasks.In the UK some surgeons operate with computers now.As a small example.Post war I became an airline pilot.. Typical crew: two pilots,flight engineers,radio officer and navigator. Now,just two pilots and they are little better than computers minders.
On the ground where there many people working out aircraft movements,now computers do it.

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Nov 13, 2018 11:20:06   #
John_F (a regular here)
 
My only problem with all-electric cars is mile range from full charge and the time to full recharge compared to full-tank mile range and time to full refill the tank. For local 'bounce-around' driving the problem is much less important but for the long-haul vacation drives it is serious. I have seen 200 miles bandied about for electric.

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Nov 13, 2018 11:57:40   #
brucebc
 
FrumCA wrote:
Auto repair shops will go away.

A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts locations.

Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

Some of your numbers are way off. A gasoline engine does not have 20,000 parts, more like 200. Oil is used for way more things than to propel cars. Most plastics are made from oil at least in part.

Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!
Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain. (We welcome that day!)

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Cities will have much cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles, please?)

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact
And it’s just getting ramped up.

Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago.
Auto repair shops will go away. br br A gasoline... (show quote)

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Nov 13, 2018 12:21:40   #
ceth512
 
davidrb wrote:
Boring fantacy, batteries are extra.


Pigs will fly too...……..some day !

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Nov 13, 2018 12:21:55   #
jeep_daddy (a regular here)
 
I usually don't read long posts like this one but it caught my eye in the beginning and kept me interested. Why? Because a lot of this is true in my opinion. I can't say how much of it will happen or when but technology is something that we can't put a time estimate on until it reaches a certain point. Like computers or smart phone, in the beginning we didn't know how long it would take to expect the performance to double, the price to come down, or the sizes to reduce in half. But now there are pretty accurate figures for each of these in this area. I don't know about cars, or lawyers, or medical devices, but yes, it's coming.

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Nov 13, 2018 12:28:57   #
G Brown
 
If your employment is computer assisted why commute at all.You could work from home.
If the pay rate is reduced as unemployment benefit is curbed or cancelled car use of any kind will stop. People's mobility needs will stop.
Welcome to the 18th century.....with deliveries by drone.

If as you say - AI takes over decision making at every level....No need for education....No need for an army or police .....if you have stopped mobility for the ignorant masses and control what vehicles are available.
Government could stop (if they haven't already). most things are already on-line.

All businesses Will stop. Personal Health needs and dietary needs can be controlled.

Never mind solar panels - selling to a national grid...What we want is bigger post boxes that ready meals can fit in. CCTV everywhere could mean that we all 'live in care' and safely.

BORING - but the next generation may think otherwise.

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Nov 13, 2018 12:29:01   #
PH CIB
 
Brave New World,,,Great Post and Great Read,,,but with too many of us and over consumption we are destroying the world,,,as they said in Nam,,,we had to destroy the village in order to save it..............

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Nov 13, 2018 12:33:42   #
ad9mac
 
Pop into Dunkin Donuts, hook up the charging station. Spend the next 4 hrs drinking coffee and eating donuts while waiting for the batteries to get enough charge to get you across town. :-)
Batteries, that's the big obstacle . I've read there may be some breakthroughs soon.

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Nov 13, 2018 13:21:36   #
Paladin48
 
[quote=FrumCA]Auto repair shops will go away.


"Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car."

A truly sad day indeed. When the SHTF and there is no power grid then all of this technology that you worship will be so much crap. Maintain the simple basic tech that can be sustained and people can actually show some resourcefulness and take care of themselves.



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Nov 13, 2018 14:12:42   #
Alan1729
 
Don't rule out Nuclear power yet, there is a safer version Thorium which was ruled out because the military wanted plutonium for the bomb. There is a lot of interest in Thorium reactors in other countries so it may come the the USA after everyone else has it.

Bloke wrote:
Oil and coal companies will go away, yet electricity will become incredibly cheap? That would be a neat trick... Solar and wind only produce a tiny fraction of the electricity we use, and it would take *huge* areas of land being set aside specifically, just to make a dent in that. There's always nuclear, of course, but public opinion keeps that out - everyone wants cheap power, but nobody wants to live next door to a nuclear plant...

Some of your changes will undoubtedly happen, of course, but there is a lot of wishful thinking in there too...
Oil and coal companies will go away, yet electrici... (show quote)

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Nov 13, 2018 14:48:19   #
shelty
 
My son made a reservoir with two electrodes in it producing hydrogen and oxygen gases which were fed to the engine and it ran. How about an engine running on water?

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