will you buy another DSLR? If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or...

CHG_CANON Loc: the Windy City

If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?

Linda From Maine Loc: Yakima, Washington

Can I ask a question instead of answering yours? On what do you base "isn't it more likely will be mirrorless?" I'm thinking age of current dslr users and prevalence of cell phone cameras for those of a certain age

I'm curious if you read a study about the demographics and that prompted your topic.

BebuLamar

CHG_CANON wrote:

If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?

Please rephrase your question and I can give you a better answer.

You said if you need one today you meant to ask someone who needs a good camera but has no camera currently? That someone doesn't have any lenses that can be used on any DSLR?

HT

DSLR’s have quite awhile to run yet. The current crop of mirrorless offers me nothing I want for my photography interests.

I fully expect my next camera, which I plan on getting late next year prior to a big trip, will be a DSLR. Probably the one after that which will be in about 4 to 5 years time, the picture is less clear.

I’m not at all convinced the mirrorless revolution is real. I do think it’s an evolving technology which will inevitably dominate market share with time, but for now it’s being oversold.

insman1132 Loc: Southwest Florida

What is it the great Bard wrote, "Me thinks thou doth protest too much!"

So many "Oh! Woe is Me's" for the DSLR.

If I found one that had what I was looking for, or needed, I certainly would buy it! I think they will be around for a long while!!!

BebuLamar

The OP doesn't yet response to my inquiry so this is my answer.
Unless something unexpected happens (which I hope not) I won't buy a DSLR anytime soon or not at all.
The reason? I already have a DSLR and I don't buy new one until it died (I have no need for better camera than the one I have) and I hope it would last a long time. I won't buy a MILC either. I might have to many years from now when my DSLR dies and they don't make DSLR anymore.

CHG_CANON Loc: the Windy City

Hey Linda / all so far, I wanted a discussion of the idea presented by Rockwell without being sent to the forgotten land of links and resources. He considers the EOS 1DXII to be the apex of DSLR technology. Mirrorless can already shoot faster without the mirror slap. Maybe the weather-resident, drop it and don't worry aspects of the pro-series models are still missing in mirrorless, but I think the v II models or something still to come will address that segment.

Regarding that "certain age" of DSLR users, I don't think that the 'mirror is better' thinking will linger on like film did ... If you haven't used a model with EVF, you should. I've only done Sony with manual focus FD lens and I understand the clear benefit of the EVF. I can imagine using AF lenses and think things will be / have to be even better. It seems from Rockwell's description that Canon is advancing the EVF beyond what Sony has done, maybe Nikon too.

The article in question: https://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/mirrorless-vs-dslr.htm

bobmcculloch Loc: NYC, NY

CHG_CANON wrote:

If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?

If I need to/ want to upgrade and a dslr is available it will probably be a dslr, so far I see no advantage in changing system, assuming same size sensor, slight weight reduction in the body, expensive adapter to use current lenses, and electronic viewfinder, don't see an advantage!

Mac Loc: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia now Hernando Co. Fl.

CHG_CANON wrote:

If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?

Who can really say? Many (probably mirrorless users) have predicted the demise of the DSLR for several years now yet new DSLR models are being produced and sold.
As for me personally, my main camera is a Nikon Df that has 2013 technology. It does everything I want a camera to do. I have looked at and read about Nikon's new Z cameras and have not been moved to change systems.
I would imagine that those who have a tendency to jump to the next new thing may move to mirrorless simply because it's new, but changing systems is an expensive endeavor.
Those who are new to photography may be attracted to mirrorless over DSLRs, only time will tell.

Country Boy Loc: Beckley, WV

I think the companies will drive the change. For me, I would go with DSLR because of the lens investments that I don't want to leave behind. However if companies put all the advancements into mirrorless and let DSLRs go people will switch to keep up with technology. However, if they continue to advance both then I think the jury is still out.

pappleg

CHG_CANON wrote:

If you need one today, well maybe that will impact today's decision. But, if you have a recent vintage, say one of the top 2017 or 2018 models, in 2-years or so, isn't it more likely the market will be all mirrorless?

Interesting question Paul, I believe there is incredible diversity in the UHH (and photographic in general) community such that no one particular format is going to completely dominate for a long time. I have pulled the trigger on the Z7 as it seems to match my needs which is mostly landscape and, as I age, I am less tolerant of the weight. My D810 and complement of mostly Zeiss primes in a backpack approached 15lbs. The trade in number on current gear was sufficient to justify the change. Following Steve Perry's comments I doubt any birders, wildlife or action folks are going to jump on this one. I am intrigued by the lens possibilities advanced by the very short flange distance to sensor and increased diameter to produce smaller, lighter, faster lenses and placing VR in the body was just plain brilliant. That said, it was the right move for me but I have big doubts that the "market will be all mirrorless" anytime soon.

Pat

donrent Loc: Punta Gorda , Fl

I recently was viewing some old images of a HS class reunion and was amazed at the quality that existed even "way back then". So I sez to myself- damn those are aren't bad at all !
Looked around and guess what ? I still had that camera. A Kodak DC4800 ,3.1 mp, model with (gasp) a viewfinder! ( had to be close to 20 years old) So I dug her out. batteries were 0 level, could not find the charger, so I ordered one. Got it . The old batteries were still good. So I downloaded the manual and so I started to refresh myself its operational ability..It works great and I'd forgotten how vivid and strong the color was . As good if not better than any camera there is today. Easy to use, very light to carry. Gee, I like that ! At 82 I'm not into weight lifting any more.

My Thoughts about my rediscovery ?
There just may be a very nice Canon and lens for sale!

foxfirerodandgun Loc: Stony Creek, VA

Personally, until the newer mirrorless cameras establish a sound track record, which should take a few years, and if I needed another DSLR camera, which I do, I would purchase a current model DSLR. In my case it will be a D7200 which is already several years old and has a good established track record. Just my 2¢. The mileage of others may vary. :~)

Linda From Maine Loc: Yakima, Washington

CHG_CANON wrote:

... If you haven't used a model with EVF, you should. I've only done Sony with manual focus FD lens and I understand the clear benefit of the EVF....

Thanks so much, Paul. I sold my Canon dslr and lenses in early 2017. I have a Panasonic G7 and an Olympus EM-10 (long story why two different models).

I went to mirrorless for the reasons many have mentioned in the past, weight and bulk. But also, I was heavily influenced by UHH user MinnieV's testimonials. And yes, the EVF's are awesome

My comment "age of dslr users" was about the weight/bulk reasons to change, not the holding onto old ways (like with film). But the mention of dslr's being at the apex of technology is very interesting too.

Thanks!

CHG_CANON Loc: the Windy City

BebuLamar wrote:

The OP doesn't yet response to my inquiry so this is my answer.
Unless something unexpected happens (which I hope not) I won't buy a DSLR anytime soon or not at all.
The reason? I already have a DSLR and I don't buy new one until it died (I have no need for better camera than the one I have) and I hope it would last a long time. I won't buy a MILC either. I might have to many years from now when my DSLR dies and they don't make DSLR anymore.

Bebu, I've promised myself to get 10-years use of my current 5DIII. Looking at images from the 5DIV as well as limits I occasionally hit in cropping from the 22MP sensor in the vIII model, that siren call of gear lust regularly sings in my ears. I can see the difference in available pixels cropping from the 24MP of the used Sony a7II I added earlier this year for using my FD lenses. That 2MP difference is noticeable in real-life situations I encounter, goes the song in my ear, just imagine having 30 ....

The point of my question wasn't to discard perfectly good equipment and change. That's nonsense to my way of thinking. But, where last week / last month I'd been thinking something in the DSLR line was the next logical candidate on the 3ish year future, I'm now thinking probably it won't be a DLSR unless the pricing on used models has dropped through the floor like film cameras today.