Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

DVDs are still in regular use and being sold. Even for the latest movies such as Moana, which even sold as Blu-ray also includes a DVD copy as well.

You clearly don't understand market dynamics, nor the limited access to broadband that many people in the US have. Digital reigns for sure, but the media in use have a long arc. I'm not sure what part of the US you hail from, but there are plenty of parts of the US that qualify as third world country equivalents from an internet connectivity perspective.

Also, you need to be aware that for something to officially qualify as an antique it needs to be at least 100 years old. Your cameras are merely vintage.

CatMarley Loc: North Carolina

By your own reckoning, the SLR is due for demise. 40 years for VHS, and 30+ for DVD. The modern SLR has been around since about 1950 (Exacta/Contax). The first commercial DSLR appeared in 1991 - 26 years now - replacing the film model which had a 41 year run. So if we can extract a rule from this, the DSLR would be due to be replaced, more or less completely, in 14 or less years even without the advent of mirrorless. And if you add in the acceleration factor of technology, it should happen a lot sooner.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

I'm not disagreeing about the eventual demise of SLR technology, digital or otherwise, but about the pace of change. Technology has one time arc, humans have another much longer one, and change generally happens on a human scale. I stand by my predictions based upon my experience of technology adoption from working in the industry for decades. Timing is everything.

Assuming you mean Kodak's DSLR from 1991 it took 10 years or so to have much impact. Digital camera technology didn't really take off until the early 2000s, so a 40 year time arc from 1991 is 2031. Sitting here in 2017 I don't see the DSLR market disappearing by 2021, a 30 year time arc and just 4 years from now. The trend is definitely happening, but it will take a while to play out and it will have a long tail. Mirrorless technology is only just beginning to be capable of challenging DSLR system level technology. At what point do we or did we start the clock?

Even when people make a decision to change it frequently takes two purchasing cycles to work through the system which can be anywhere between 3 and 10 years. The 'acceleration factor of technology' is usually overestimated and more frequently leads to company or technology failures than it leads to commercial success.

The DSLR market will not fail because the primary demographic of UHH is getting old and frail. It will fail for other reasons.

TucsonCoyote Loc: Tucson AZ

That remains to be seen ! lol

CatMarley Loc: North Carolina

Be that as it may, it is dwindling.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

I'm not disagreeing about the trend, just the amount of time that these things take....

Smartphones have pretty much taken over the P&S market, but the ILC market, mirrorless or otherwise has a different cadence. We need to see how it plays out.

CO

I don't think that mirrorless will get a foothold in the professional market. Sony has been trying for years. When you see photographers at the sidelines of an NFL game they're using Canons and Nikons. This may be the pivot point for mirrorless in the professional market. Sony recently introduced the Alpha a9 which is aimed squarely at the Nikon D5 and Canon 1DX Mk.II. If the Sony a9 cannot sway professional photographers away then it might be headed downhill in that market.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

I am not a Sony advocate - I'm a Canon guy - but brand isn't the issue here. There is a technology shift happening, and Sony is on the leading edge of that currently. I actually do think that mirrorless technology will become dominant, but which company will become dominant is very open to question. Sony is an early mover, and exploiting the acquisition of Minolta very well, but whether that early lead is sustainable is another question, and it is too early to call that. Nikon appears to be significantly behind. Canon is behind, but is certainly in the game. We shall see what happens as the game plays out.

markjay

Professionals used to think they would never go to digital, and that the future for "professionals" would always be film.

Anyone thinking that the future for EVERYONE is not mirrorless, has their heads in the sand.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Or perhaps another dark place! Nothing is absolute Markybird!

markjay

Since there is not other alternative right now to mirrorless, the move to mirrorless is absolute.
Of course in another 10 years, there will be something new.
There will always be some holdouts. There are people who still use film. They have the right to do that.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

That is of course total bullshit, nothing is absolute.

markjay

really, ???
I guess you belong to the camp that thinks the sun may not rise tomorrow.
Or maybe you believe the earth is still flat.
Or maybe you believe that the Russians altered the election for Trump.
Or maybe you believe that you have a head on your shoulder...

CatMarley Loc: North Carolina

Why do you guys always end up in a barrage of ad hominems? It IS possible to argue with logic, humor and grace!

markjay

Of course.
I made several comments on the subject of mirrorless, and I am simply not the type to sit by and let someone say that my comments are stupid, or worse. So if someone starts slinging insults, I throw them back. There are simply too many people on this Board who think they know everything, and only their comments are correct. Sorry to say - but this PeterFF guy seems to be nothing more than an FF.
But thanks for your comment. It is well taken. I wish we had less commentary here that was so absurdly opinionated, or insulting.